It has been almost two months since Rishi Sunak announced he’d be stepping down as leader of the Conservatives after the party’s worst ever General Election result.
And yet, when parliament returns on Monday, he will still be sitting directly across from Prime Minister Keir Starmer as the Leader of the Opposition.
As a matter of fact, the contest to replace Sunak is not even halfway complete.
There are six people in the running – five of whom have yet to formally launched their campaigns. You can find out more about them in our story here.
But after many weeks of jostling, pitching, and background briefings, we’re about to finally see some movement.
Within the next few days, we’re expecting to see several of the candidates announcing the launch of their campaign. That’s despite the fact we’ve known for a while they’re going to be standing.
And on Wednesday, voting finally begins.
Here’s the full timeline of the Conservative leadership contest, and when we’ll officially know who has won.
July 5
Rishi Sunak stood outside Downing Street following the Tories’ dismal election result and announced he was about to travel to Buckingham Palace and tell the King he was resigning as prime minister.
Later in that same speech, he confirmed what many were expecting to hear: he was also departing as leader.
He said: ‘Following this [election] result, I will step down as party leader. Not immediately, but once the formal arrangements for selecting my successor are in place.
‘It is important that after 14 years in government the Conservative Party rebuilds, but also that it takes up its crucial role in opposition professionally and effectively.’
It was not widely appreciated at the time just how far the words ‘not immediately’ would be stretched.
July 22
It was revealed that the contest would take place over three months, with Sunak remaining as the leader of the opposition until it comes to an end.
Over the following week, several candidates emerge with enough support among Tory MPs to formally enter the running.
July 29
At 2.30pm, nominations formally closed and the final six were locked in.
They were Tom Tugendhat, James Cleverly, Robert Jenrick, Kemi Badenoch, Priti Patel and Mel Stride.
Former Home Secretary Suella Braverman also gained the support of the requisite 10 Conservative MPs to run, but on July 29 she announced she wouldn’t go for the prize.
‘There is, for good or for ill, no point in someone like me running to lead the Tory Party when most of the MPs disagree with my diagnosis and prescription’ of the problems with the party’s approach, she said.
August 2
Ex-immigration minister Robert Jenrick officially launched his campaign for the leadership. He remains the only candidate to have done this.
He told a rally in Newark: ‘I want to breathe new life into our party with a new spirit in which we respect the membership of this party.’
All the others decided to hold off officially starting their campaign until closer to the start of voting, in an effort to avoid losing momentum.
But that doesn’t mean they’ve been resting for the past few weeks. Hustings have been held and the candidates have made sure to regularly comment on Keir Starmer’s actions since becoming PM in order to pop up in news coverage.
September 4 – 11
Four votes will be held over the next couple of weeks to whittle down the numbers.
They’ll take place on Wednesday September 4, Thursday September 5, Tuesday September 10 and Wednesday September 11.
By the time that’s all over, we should be down to four candidates.
It’s expected that underdog Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride will be one of the first to go, but the other is still anyone’s guess.
September 29 – October 2
Expect the race to heat up after that first round of voting, as the final four hope toget the chance to put their case to Tory members after the field is narrowed to two.
The peak of this will be the Conservative Party Conference, which is taking place in Birmingham between September 29 and October 2.
It’s the biggest event on the party calendar, so the arguments made – and alliances forged – in Brum will matter.
October 9 and 10
This is when the 121 Conservative MPs (reduced by about two thirds from the previous election) decide who will end up going to the members’ vote.
Last time the Tories picked a leader, in October 2022, this was the final stage. The members didn’t get a choice at all: Rishi Sunak was selected by MPs as the new PM.
October 31
On Halloween, voting will begin to decide who will become the next leader of the opposition.
The most recent figures, from 2022, showed that the Conservative Party has a little over 172,000 members – they’ll all get the opportunity to choose who they want as leader.
Up until this point, it’s just MPs who are voting, and changing the electorate can dramatically flip the dynamic of the race.
That’s what happened in the summer 2022 leadership election, which had Rishi Sunak winning every round of the ballot until it was put to the members and they decided to pick Liz Truss.
Of course, Sunak ended up as prime minister within a couple of months anyway, but that’s beside the point.
November 2
After four months of debate, the winner will be announced and Rishi Sunak will step down as leader.
Stay tuned to find out who will be taking his seat on the Tory front bench.
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