Anas Sarwar’s chances of becoming First Minister are being harmed by Downing Street blunders and Treasury control freakery. The Glasgow MSP was buzzing on July 5th after Scottish Labour’s general election triumph and was on course to secure the keys to Bute House.
But the Winter Fuel Payment debacle and needless scandals like donors paying for Keir Starmer’s clothes are cutting through with voters.
A good case can be made for abolishing a universal WFP and replacing it with a targeted system. The problem with Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ alternative is moving from automatic eligibility to a miserly 10% of senior citizens pocketing extra cash, if they fill out a form.
When Labour says people with the broadest shoulders should pay more, it is hard to argue this means widows on a fixed income of £12,000. Starmer should be using his political capital to undo Tory welfare policies, not taking an axe to Gordon Brown’s legacy.
Snatching the WFP from low income pensioners at the same time as the energy price cap rises is another nightmare for Scottish Labour.
The Government is facing a deluge of newspaper stories in the winter about OAPs getting admitted to hospital with hypothermia. Sarwar will be the Scottish spokesman for this catastrophe.
If John Swinney is smart, he will use December’s draft budget to reinstate a universal WFP. What would, or could, Scottish Labour say in response?
Sarwar wanted the Labour conference in Liverpool to be about the sun rising on a new dawn, but it looks like he will be standing under a black cloud.
Senior Scottish party figures are critical of Downing Street strategists and spin doctors for their inability to snuff out mistakes. One insider said the optics of pensioners losing cash while Starmer and his team rake in freebies should not have been difficult to grasp.
A view also exists that the Scottish Office under Ian Murray needs to be more awake to bad news coming down the line. Sarwar and his team knew nothing about the WFP cut and would have appreciated a heads up from friendly Ministers.
The Scottish Labour leader remains favourite to succeed Swinney in 2026, but his fate is no longer in his own hands.
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