BUCS at FALCONS
8:15 p.m., Falcons by 2 ½, 43 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Kirk Cousins, as always, is a gamer, but his still-not-100% Achilles has made him a marked man. He doesn’t have the same mobility and he’s been near the bottom of the league in QB efficiency when under pressure, with three picks and four sacks in his two games against the strong pass rushes of the Steelers and Chiefs. Everything in Todd Bowles’ defense works off the blitz. Injuries have hit the Bucs’ defense, but those injuries didn’t show up against the Eagles last week, when they sacked Jalen Hurts six times. They have impressively allowed just 19.5 ppg, including matchups against the Lions and Commanders.
After blowing a tire the previous week against the Broncos, Baker Mayfield and the Bucs offense got back on track with 445 yards of total offense. Mayfield is patient and can spread the ball around and that’s what you need to do against this defense. Betting trends also favor the Bucs. They have covered in eight of their last 11 games while the Falcons are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as favorites. Thursday night games are generally low scoring and with Atlanta likely to lean on the run (Tampa Bay is 22nd in rushing yards allowed), the under is very much in play. The Falcons have been settling for Younghoe Koo field goals a lot (34 of the Falcons’ 73 points have come off his toe), and the Bucs have allowed just one TD through the air all season long. Additionally, the Falcons’ defense is based on limiting big plays. They make you grind out drives.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bucs and the under.