‘A long, brutal, drawn-out, miserable slog.’
This is what Matt Holt, a Washington DC-based election reporter, says people should expect from the 2024 US Presidential Election.
Vice president Kamala Harris and former US President Donald Trump have under a month to make their case to the American people that they should lead the nation, before the date when Americans head to the polls.
Sounds simple enough, right? But experts told Metro.co.uk that American elections are a lot to get your head around.
And with misinformation likely to be rampant (again) this year, here’s our guide to this year’s miserable slog – oh, we mean, the US presidential elections.
When is Election Day 2024?
It happens every four years on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November.
This year’s election will be on . The winner will be in the White House for four years starting in January 2025.
What people think of as ‘election day’ is actually part one of a two-part election.
The first – called the presidential general election – sees people tick the box of the candidate they want to be president and vice president. After this, there’s a second round of voting. Not by regular people, but by the Electoral College.
What is the ‘Electoral College’?
No, you can’t study at this college. College here is a rather clunky way of saying a group of people who elect the president and vice president.
Stay with us here, but the process of the Electoral College isn’t a popular vote. Some candidates win the Electoral College – and a seat in the Oval Office – but lose the popular vote.
Let’s say someone living in Texas – which has 40 electors – votes for Trump. In an annoyingly pedantic way, that person isn’t voting for Trump, they’re voting for the 40 electors to vote for Trump.
That Texan is, in effect, electing the electors to elect the president.
The founding fathers at the time thought this was a great idea to ensure that states with smaller populations didn’t feel ignored. Modern-day critics, however, feel it’s rooted in racism and is wildly convoluted.
Holt is among them. ‘It’s an archaic system, absolutely,’ he says.
Holt, who has bylines in the news website The Messenger and the government affairs magazine National Journal, says that if you’re already confused, you’re about to get even more so.
‘The amount of electoral votes in each state, assigned by the Constitution, totals how many US Senators and US House members each state has,’ he says.
‘For example, my home state Rhode Island has two senators and two House members, so they get four electoral votes.
‘There are 538 electors. There are 535 members of Congress between the Senate and the House, and DC gets three electoral votes due to the 23rd Amendment.
‘First to 270 electoral votes wins. Most Americans want the Electoral College to go away.’
Who are the electors?
The electors are appointed by the political parties in each state and they promise to vote for that party’s candidate. The party often chooses elected state officials, state party leaders or locals with ties to the candidate.
Do all of a state’s Electoral College votes go to one candidate?
Other than Maine and Nebraska, states award all their Electoral College votes to whoever won the popular vote.
We know, we know, this doesn’t make sense. Didn’t we say the popular vote doesn’t decide the president? Well, on a state level, the election to vote for the Electoral College tends to be a popular vote. On a national level, however, it doesn’t.
Circling back to our Texan voter, his vote for Trump helped score the Republican candidate a 50.1% win, so Texas awarded him all 40 of its votes.
But if Trump won by 100%, he wouldn’t get any ‘more’ votes. He’d still get the 40 Electoral College votes. Got it? We just about do, to be honest.
Why is a ‘swing state’ important?
Pretty much! These indecisive states don’t consistently vote blue or red.
‘Only seven states will decide who is the next president – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania,’ Holt says.
‘Most of the campaigning will take place in those states. Both campaigns might make attempts to expand the map but for the most part, that’s where the action will take place.’
As of October 22, some early voting has commenced in all seven swing states.
Has a candidate ever lost the popular vote but still become president?
Yes! We told you it’s a weird system.
In 2016, Trump seemingly won by an Electoral College landslide of 304 compared to Hillary Clinton’s 227. Yet more American voters cast ballots for Clinton. She had 65,853,514 Americans tick the box next to her name compared to 62,984,828 for Trump.
On that note, you’re probably sick of seeing the words ‘Electoral College’, so let’s never speak of it again.
Well, you know, just in case you weren’t aware.
For the Democrats, it’s Harris, 59, while the Republicans are hedging their bets on a Trump comeback.
Trump is 78. If he is reelected, he will be the second-oldest president and the age Biden was when he was inaugurated.
There are four others in the running. Independent and third-party candidates include Jill Stein and Chase Oliver.
Don’t knock yourself too much if you haven’t heard of them. The US is very much a two-party system and has been so since the mid-1800s – the Electoral College’s winner-takes-all approach is one reason for this.
Independents have never come close to becoming president – voting for one has a bad rep for being a ‘wasted vote’, though voting rights campaigners say it is anything but.
As the Library of Congress says: ‘The road to the White House is long, expensive, and exhausting.’
Usually, it’s a lot of promising, handshaking, posing with babies in front of cameras and name-calling as the candidates tour the country.
And presidential TV debates. CNN hosted the first on June 27 in the swing state of Georgia. ABC held the second on September 10.
Is misinformation something to be worried about?
You might soon be sick of hearing the words ‘misinformation’ and ‘disinformation’ as well.
While they’re usually used interchangeably, they do mean different things. Misinformation means getting the facts wrong, while disinformation is intentionally misstating the facts.
Naomi Owusu, CEO and co-founder of live digital publishing platform Tickaroo, says: ‘Disinformation can take the shape of audio, video or imagery, and increasingly uses AI to convincingly swap faces or mimic voices.
‘However, disinformation doesn’t have to be high-tech – it can be as simple as the use of old images for new stories to mislead the viewer.’
Dr Evan Lawrence, senior lecturer in international relations at the University of Central Lancashire in England, adds that a fair amount of campaigning happens online – especially on social media – where misinformation runs rampant.
‘Misinformation, whether through AI-generated imagery, sophisticated fake news sites, or calculated social media tactics, poses a significant threat to the democratic ideal of an informed electorate,’ he says.
‘The consequences of misinformation are diverse and deep-seated.’
How do I know that photograph of Trump is really of Trump? That video really of Harris?
Adam Marrè spent 12 years working for the FBI as a special agent investigating cybercrime and was also a senior SWAT team leader. In other words, he knows a fake when he sees one.
But even Marrè, now the chief information security officer at the cybersecurity firm Arctic Wolf, admits it’s becoming hard to work out what’s real.
‘My advice to voters would ultimately be don’t trust anything you see online,’ he says.
‘However, there are still some signs to look for,’ he adds. ‘For example, in some AI-generated videos, the sound may not be in sync with the speaker’s lip movements and other movements may appear unnatural.
‘It’s also an idea to examine the background – do shadows appear in places you’d expect? Are the background and colours realistic?’
Fake news will be prolific as well this year. Make sure to fact-check every claim you see and, of course, read beyond the headline. With social media posts, check out the comments and the author’s profile.
‘Keeping an eye out for these could prevent you from falling foul of disinformation while ensuring your vote this election season is entirely your own,’ he says.
Owusu adds: ‘It’s also important to ask who gains from a story and be sceptical – this can help you confirm the validity of your sources.
‘For example, if a story on the incredible effects of rhubarb references a study that the Rhubarb Farmer Association of America commissioned, the findings in that study may need to be examined more thoroughly.
‘Did another independent study also find these findings? Has the study been peer-reviewed?’
Can I believe the US Election polls?
Polls are regularly coming in with Harris and Trump neck and neck, though most show Harris leading by a couple of percentage points.
However, in both 2016 and 2020 the polls underestimated the support for Donald Trump from voters.
For example, polls conducted in the last two weeks before the 2020 election suggested that Biden’s margin over Trump was nearly twice as large as it ended up being in the final tally.
But that’s not to say the polls should be disregarded. Pollsters have been working to improve accuracy, with many organisations using a more diverse range of polling methods including telephone, online and postal polling, as well as making adjustments based on a range of demographic variables.
The 2022 midterms saw generally accurate polling, and FiveThirtyEight found that ‘polls were more accurate in 2022 than in any cycle since at least 1998, with almost no bias toward either party.’
Meanwhile, Odds Checker has Trump’s odds for returning to the White House on 7/10. Harris is 7/5.
Predict It, which allows users to buy stock in a candidate’s chances of winning, has Harris at 47¢. Trump is on 58¢.
For Holt, however, surveys that put either candidate ahead aren’t to be trusted. Politics moves fast and the figures may be different in only a few hours.
‘So the “haters,” or voters that dislike both candidates,’ Holt adds, ‘will be crucial to deciding who will win in November.’
When will the US Election results be announced?
Usually, it becomes clear who has won on the night of the election, but it can also take days – as was the case in the 2020 US Presidential election.
Even then, the results are not properly finalised for months. Members of the Electoral College are scheduled to convene in each state on December 17 to certify the result, while the declaration of the result in Congress will occur on January 6, 2025.
The winner will then be sworn into office in a ceremony known as the inauguration.
The period between the election and the inauguration is known as transition, and gives the new administration time to appoint cabinet ministers and make plans for their term.
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