Donald Trump’s easy victory is a warning shot for Keir Starmer as he considers how to use power as a springboard for a second term. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris swept to office in 2020 on a tidal wave of hope and optimism.
They promised economic renewal and re-balancing the scales of power towards ordinary Americans. Trump’s win over Harris showed the Democrats failed to convince voters they had achieved their goals.
Inflation had eaten into wages of Americans and made their trips to the gas station and supermarkets more expensive.
Soaring illegal immigration across the Mexican border fuelled economic anxiety and created the impression of White House incompetence.
Trump’s campaign hammered Harris on inflation and immigration and her counter-narrative about the Republican right winger being a threat to democracy failed to get her over the line.
Starmer’s team, who will have watched the US results with horror, know the cost of under-delivery. The Labour leader, like Biden, campaigned on “change” and fixing a broken economy.
But Starmer‘s change message was undermined by early actions that many voters believe could have emanated from a Tory Government. Slashing cash payments from poorer pensioners while accepting free clothes from donors were the types of behaviour people expect from the Conservatives.
The jury is also out on the impact of £40bn of tax rises on economic growth, which is central to Labour’s message of renewal.
Just as Biden struggled on illegal immigration, so too is Starmer under pressure to solve the small boats crisis. Failure to tackle these intractable problems could result in Starmer going the same way as Biden and Harris.
Starmer’s strategists have to recognise the importance of receiving credit when policies have a positive impact on people’s lives.
Biden and Harris struggled on inflation, but the US economy grew on their watch and jobs were plentiful. The President had cross-party support for legislation clamping down on illegal immigration, but an exiled Trump badgered Republican senators into opposing the plan.
Voters had a perception they had been better off under Trump – a view that can be easily challenged – but Biden could not cut through with the facts.
By dint of our parliamentary system, Starmer has more power to make a difference to the lives of voters than Biden. The Prime Minister has a massive majority unlike the President who was obstructed at every turn by Republicans in Congress.
And Starmer does not have a partisan Supreme Court trying to unwind social progress by knocking down progressive laws. The lesson of November 5th is Starmer has to push through bold change and be seen to make a difference to the everyday struggles of folk across the UK.
The alternative is a humbling defeat in 2029 and Trump fan Kemi Badenoch installed in Downing Street.
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