SNP Holyrood selections are about balancing the need for new blood with avoiding the perception John Swinney is leading a sinking ship. Every election has churn with MSPs retiring or quitting and newbies arriving with a belief they can make a difference.
Former First Ministers Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf have applied to stand in 2026, but nobody expects them to go through with it.
Sturgeon’s time at Holyrood is over and a future without having to declare her lucrative outside interests awaits. A life outside the Parliament means avoiding journalists and the type of scrutiny that comes with the job.
Yousaf could also make decent money if he leaves and it is hard to see why he would stay.
But a raft of big name departures would make it look like Swinney has lost the dressing room. He needs Cabinet colleagues like Fiona Hyslop and Shona Robison to stay to ensure he can draw on experience if he hangs on as FM.
The other pressure is ensuring a new group of MSPs has enough potential leadership contenders in case Swinney is ousted by voters.
One of Sturgeon’s failings was a lack of succession planning which led to Yousaf taking over. Westminster leader Stephen Flynn trying to make the move to Holyrood shows the SNP will have options in the event of defeat in 2026.
Party insiders believe Flynn, as well as Cabinet Secretaries Kate Forbes and Jenny Gilruth, would all try to succeed Swinney. But recent opinion polls have been kinder to the SNP of late and Swinney could crawl over the line.
The Winter Fuel Payment debacle and the fallout from the Budget have hit Anas Sarwar and Swinney has steadied the Government. July 4th was a disaster for the SNP, but voter loyalty is weak and the pressure is now on Labour.
Targeting new talent in the event of a fifth SNP term is essential if Swinney’s party is to turn the corner.
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