Rachel Reeves put a bomb under Scottish Labour’s Holyrood election hopes when she slashed the Winter Fuel Payment.
The Chancellor decided to take money from angry pensioners who always vote in elections.
Anas Sarwar’s party tumbled in the opinion polls and were defeated in council by elections they should have won.
If Scottish Labour was a company, the Reeves announcement sent their share price through the floor.
Sarwar and his deputy Jackie Baillie, who has made a career out of protecting her elderly constituents in Dumbarton, were horrified.
His promise the axe Reeves’ means-test is an attempt at defusing the time-bomb but is not without risk.
Sarwar’s pitch is essentially ‘Vote Scottish Labour to reverse UK Labour policy” – a message that could confuse voters.
Party sources also say he had a hand in ensuring Scottish Labour MPs voted for the Reeves cut at Westminster, only to do a u-turn weeks later.
But his positioning is shrewd and may be enough to dig himself out of a political hole.
Backing a universal WFP, albeit one that is clawed back for higher earners, puts him on the popular side of a damaging controversy for Labour.
It also shows he can flex his muscles as Scottish Labour leader and contradict Starmer and Reeves.
The timing of his declaration is also aimed at upstaging the SNP.
John Swinney is considering bringing back a universal WFP in his December Budget and Sarwar wants to nip ahead of the First Minister.
But there are also wider lessons for Sarwar to learn from the winter payment debacle.
Starmer’s Government wants to front load the pain while Sarwar needs the early days of the Labour administration to bring about positive news. Both leaders are out of sync on timing.
Sarwar’s strategy so far has been to hug the Prime Minister close and reap the benefits in Scotland of a resurgent UK party.
But the danger with this approach is Scottish Labour takes a hit when the wider project struggles.
The WFP row shows Sarwar needs to be his own man more often rather than riding on the coattails of the UK leader.
Starmer was key to Scottish Labour returning 37 MPs but he has become an obstacle to the prize Sarwar really wants.
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