The SNP faces “serious trouble” at the next Holyrood election in 2026 unless it can win back support in central Scotland, a party veteran has warned.
Alex Neil spoke out after the Nationalists slumped to defeat at a 15th consecutive council by-election last week, losing in three wards in Glasgow to Labour. It comes after similar losses for the party in Ayrshire and Lanarkshire.
The SNP was also reduced to just nine MPs at the UK general election in July where it failed to win a constituency south of Stirling.
Neil, a former MSP for Airdrie and Shotts, said his party could not afford any more “scandals” between now and the next Holyrood poll in 2026.
The Nationalists have endured a difficult period following the sudden resignation of Nicola Sturgeon in February 2023 and the ongoing Operation Branchform police investigation into party finances.
Neil said: “The SNP leadership needs to face-up to the fact, as shown by three by-election defeats in Glasgow last week, that we are in serious trouble, particularly in the central belt.
“Unless we turn that around we will be out of government. The last thing we need is any more scandal.
Turn-out in recent by-elections has been low with just 12 per cent of voters in the North East Glasgow ward having their say. But Neil said the results showed a pattern emerging.
“We have not done well, particularly in the central belt. And if that trend continues, we will have no chance of forming the next government after 2026.
“And if we’re out of government, the independence agenda will be on the backburner. The SNP leadership needs to start delivering again for the Scottish people.
“When you look at Ayrshire or Glasgow, the pattern is the same, despite the controversy over the Winter Fuel Payment, despite the poor start of Keir Starmer, and despite the Budget.
“The fact of life is Labour are doing better in these by-elections than the SNP. The message from the electorate is we better get our act together.”
The Glasgow by-elections also saw a rise in support for Nigel Farage’s Reform party, despite it having a limited presence on the ground in Scotland.
The right-wing populist movement has been gaining traction in the polls and looks likely to return several MSPs in 2026 if the trend continues.
Neil added: “A substantial number of Reform MSPs would be bad news for Scotland and bad news for the independence movement.
“But it’s bad news for all the traditional parties. But a lot of working class people, who would never vote Tory, and don’t like Starmer, have unfortunately reached the conclusion that the only people speaking their language is Reform.”
The Record asked the SNP for comment.
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