Anas Sarwar has admitted disagreements with Keir Starmer after his party slumped in a new opinion poll. But the Scottish Labour leader insisted the Prime Minister is doing a good job leading the UK Government.
The Norstat/Sunday Times poll found that SNP leader John Swinney is on course for victory at the next Holyrood election. It also recorded another fall in support for Labour that would see Sarwar’s party return its lowest ever number of MSPs.
Scottish Labour sources believe the UK Government’s cut to the Winter Fuel Payment for the elderly, the freebies row and Budget tax rises are harming Sarwar.
The poll was also conducted days after an SNP Government Budget that will reverse the WFP cuts and promised to scrap Labour’s two child benefit cap.
In an interview with the BBC, Sarwar said of the poll: “Over the course of the last three and a half years, I have seen lots of individual polls that have not looked good for the Scottish Labour party. If we look at the actual polls, which is people going out to vote, we won overwhelmingly on the fourth of July. We’ve had countless council by-elections since the fourth of July and the SNP have lost 19 of the last 20 by-elections here in Scotland.”
He added: “I do actually think Keir Starmer is doing a good job because he is clearing up the mess of the Tories.” However, he repeated his opposition to the Labour Government’s cut to WFP: “That’s one example of a disagreement”.
On SNP Finance Secretary Shona Robison’s decision to remove the two child cap in 2026, Sarwar said: “Ultimately I think we should have the removal of the two child benefit cap right across the UK and of course in here in Scotland too.”
He said Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Budget had ended austerity and described the SNP Government’s tax and spending plan as a “missed opportunity”. The poll showed the SNP is on 37% on the constituency vote for Holyrood and 32% on the regional lists – both up from August.
If these numbers materialised on polling day, Holyrood would have another majority of pro-independence MSPs. Labour’s poll rating in first-past-the-post for the 2026 election stands at 21% while they slumped to 18% on the lists.
Nigel Farage’s Reform is believed to be eating into the pro-UK vote and damaging Labour and the Tories. A separate opinion poll found Labour in third place at a Westminster level behind the Tories and Reform.
Sarwar is now braced for a spirited internal debate on how Scottish Labour should respond to Robison’s Budget. Shadow cabinet secretaries want Labour to vote against, but other senior figures believe a no vote on a Budget that scraps WFP cuts and opposes Labour’s two child cap would backfire.
Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, said: “The high hopes that Labour’s general election success in July would pave the way for Anas Sarwar to become first minister in May 2026 have rapidly evaporated. The latest Norstat poll suggests the party’s support has fallen to its lowest level since shortly before the first partygate stories emerged in Westminster just over three years ago.”
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