By practically every meaningful measure, Juan Soto’s mega-contract with the Mets is unprecedented.
The $765 million the Mets agreed to give the slugger set a record for total value, blowing past the $700 million the Los Angeles Dodgers committed to Shohei Ohtani last winter in a 10-year deal that deferred $680 million into the next decade.
Soto’s annual average salary of $51 million also set a record, as the present-day value of Ohtani’s deal is worth approximately $46 million per year.
And Soto’s 15-year contract exceeds the 14-year extension Fernando Tatis Jr. signed with the San Diego Padres, which was previously the longest ever.
There is, therefore, no precedent to project how Soto’s contract will age.
Soto is entering his age-26 season, making him two, three or even four years younger than the typical first-time free agent.
He is on a Hall-of-Fame trajectory and coming off of his most-productive MLB season — 41 home runs and a .989 OPS with the Yankees — which suggests his best years may still be in front of him, even if Aaron Judge is no longer batting behind him.
Soto posted a career-best 8.1 wins above replacement (WAR) last season, according to FanGraphs metrics. FanGraphs valued one win in 2024 to be worth about $8 million, meaning Soto’s production was worth a $65.1 million salary.
FanGraphs previously valued Soto’s numbers at $54.3 million in 2021 and $48.2 million in 2023.
The real risk for the Mets, though, is the backend of Soto’s deal.
If he does not trigger the opt-out clause in his contract after five years, Soto would be 41 in the final year of his deal in 2039.
FanGraphs’ ZiPS Projection envisions Soto posting a 6.2 WAR in each of his first three seasons with the Mets. A 6.2 WAR would have been worth $49.8 million in 2024.
But FanGraphs projects Soto’s WAR to gradually decline to 6.0 in 2028, 5.5 in 2029 and 5.2 in 2030. By 2039, Soto’s projected WAR is 1.2, which — at 2024’s rate — would be worth about a $9.6 million salary.
In terms of traditional statistics, the website projects Soto to hit .242 with 14 home runs and a .783 OPS in 2039.
Overall, FanGraphs evaluated a 15-year, $719 million contract for Soto, which is not far from what he actually received. The bulk of Soto’s projected production comes in the first 10 or 11 years of the contract.
Of course, $51 million in 2039 will be worth much less than it is now.
Fifteen years ago, Alex Rodriguez was MLB’s highest-paid player at $33 million. When accounting for inflation, A-Rod’s salary that year would have been worth about $49 million in 2024.
Rodriguez, who was 33 at the time, posted 33 home runs and 100 RBI in 124 games for the Yankees in 2009, which was good for a 4.1 WAR and worth a $26.1 million salary — or $38.4 million in today’s value — according to FanGraphs.
Using the same inflation rate, a $51 million salary today would be the equivalent of $75 million in 2039.
And plenty can change over the course of 15 years.
In 2009, Bernie Madoff pleaded guilty in connection with a Ponzi scheme that tanked the Mets’ payroll for years. Steve Cohen, whose $21.3 billion net worth makes him baseball’s richest owner, became the Mets’ majority owner in 2020.
Injuries can strike. Mike Trout posted a WAR of 6.8 or better in each of his first eight MLB seasons from ages 20-27 but has eclipsed 3.0 only once in the last four years.
And Soto, who posted a negative defensive rating last year despite being a Gold Glove finalist in right field, could become primarily a designated hitter at some point during the deal.
These types of long-term contracts typically become cumbersome by the end.
Rodriguez’s production after signing a 10-year, $275 million contract with the Yankees before the 2008 season ended up being worth a total value of $149 million, according to FanGraphs.
That included a 2014 season in which Rodriguez served a yearlong PED-related suspension, a 2016 season in which A-Rod posted a negative WAR before being released, and a 2017 season — the last on his deal — in which he did not play.
Rodriguez’s contract was a resounding success compared to the 10-year, $254 million contract Albert Pujols signed with the Los Angeles Angels before the 2012 season.
Pujols never posted a WAR above 3.3 during that deal, and he finished four of those seasons with a negative WAR. His production was worth just $46.1 million over those 10 years, per FanGraphs. He, too, was released before the contract ended.
In the opposite vein, the 13-year, $330 million contract Bryce Harper signed with the Philadelphia Phillies at age 26 appears to be a bargain. He has totaled a 23.8 WAR over the first six seasons — including the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign — for a value of $190.3 million, according to FanGraphs. He won the National League MVP in 2021 and finished sixth in the voting last year at age 31.
Rodriguez and Pujols were both 32 when they began their new deals. Again, Soto is 26, meaning his contract will cover many more of his prime years than Rodriguez’s or Pujols’ pacts did.
However, if he doesn’t opt out, Soto will finish his contract at around the same age Rodriguez and Pujols finished theirs.
But Mets fans aren’t worried about 2039 right now, or even 2029, for that matter.
Soto makes the Mets much better in 2025 and beyond. Keep in mind that Judge, in his age-32 season, just led MLB hitters with 58 home runs, 144 RBI, a .458 on-base percentage, a .701 slugging percentage, an 1.159 OPS, 133 walks and an 11.2 WAR.
Soto won’t be 32 for six more years.