It was another point on the road for Celtic in the Champions League against Dinamo Zagreb – and it could prove vital with the Hoops fans dreaming of more glory nights in Europe’s elite competition.
Brendan Rodgers‘ side have only suffered defeat in the league phase to heavyweights Borussia Dortmund so far banking nine points from their six games to this stage with Young Boys at Celtic Park and Aston Villa on the road the remaining two fixtures of this Champions League phase. Teams ranked in the top eight of the league stage will qualify automatically for the round of 16 as seeded teams, while teams finishing between the 9th and 24th place will enter the playoff phase.
Before a ball was kicked in the Croatian capital, the boffins at Opta reckoned that a 20th place finish was most likely for Celtic with 9.2 per cent, while ending in 21st spot is the second most likely scenario for the Scottish champions. And despite not claiming a first away win in the Champions League since 2017 in Zagreb, there is good news for the Hoops fans with two games remaining.
Using their supercomputer, Opta simulated the league phase fixtures 50,000 times and found that in 99 per cent of their simulations teams who collected 10 points made it into the play-off round. Encouragingly for the Parkhead faithful a tally of nine points proved to be enough in 69 per cent of simulations by the supercomputer – which would be a dream scenario for the club.
That would mean that the Dinamo point is already enough to book a spot in the next phase – but a win over the Swiss champions on matchday seven will smash both thresholds and turn the Hoops hopes into a reality. But could Celtic go a step further and still make a fairytale run to the top eight?
It seems like a long shot – but according to the supercomputer, yes. Opta believes that 16 points will be enough in 98 per cent of scenarios. That is beyond the Premiership leaders reach – but the statisticians claim that 15 points was sufficient for eighth place in 73 cent of simulations.
So, two wins from two against Young Boys and Villa could see Celtic sneak into the top eight. That would leave Callum McGregor and Co sit with their feet up and watch the knockout phase from home – while also skipping two midweek matchdays.