January 6th will see the two contenders to be First Minister at the 2026 Holyrood election try to set the terms of political debate.
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar will use a state-of-the-nation address to blame the SNP for crumbling services and set out an alternative.
First Minister John Swinney’s message will be more immediate. He will tell rival parties – Labour in particular – to vote for his Budget or face the electoral consequences.
The SNP leader’s December spending plans include restoring universal Winter Fuel Payments, starting the abolition of the two child benefit cap and pouring extra cash into the NHS.
Sarwar, whose party is instinctively opposed to every SNP Budget, faces one of the trickiest moments of his leadership in deciding which way to go.
But while the Budget contains difficulties for Sarwar – Swinney is using UK Government funding to undo bad Westminster policies – the correct course of action is staring at him.
Swinney’s Budget has only been made possible by a UK Labour Government that is handing billions of pounds extra to Holyrood.
Without Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ revenue-raising decisions, there would be no new investment for the NHS or the resources to scrap her own policy on WFP.
Scottish Labour should claim credit for the Budget measures and either vote for the plan or abstain.
Swinney’s draft Budget laid out the spending allocations for each portfolio – a set of decisions Labour cannot be against in principle. They could support the plan and quickly pivot to the SNP’s weak spot of delivery.
As surveys show, Scots have become exasperated with the SNP Government over their inability to deliver on voter priorities. The educational attainment gap remains wide and the backlog of NHS treatments is a national scandal.
The key issue about the Budget is not about extra funding, which everyone on the centre-left should welcome, but the outcomes linked to the spending.
Sarwar wants to say as little as possible about the Budget because he sees it as a trap laid for him by Swinney. On this latter point he is correct. But Labour sources believe helping pass the budget would scupper Swinney and change the focus onto delivery.
Sarwar’s party has a knee-jerk hostility to all SNP Budgets, a loathing borne out of electoral humblings since 2007. In Michael Marra, Sarwar has a shadow cabinet finance secretary whose hostility to the SNP is palpable.
But party insiders want Sarwar to take a fresh approach to the Budget and not give Swinney the ammo he desires. They believe that by voting against the Budget Labour MSPs will be voting against the extra cash Reeves has provided to Holyrood.
Swinney is licking his lips at the prospect of Sarwar joining the Tories in opposing the Budget. The Scottish Labour leader’s January 6th speech gives him an opportunity to change the terms of debate ahead of a tough election.
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