The SNP and Labour are engaged in a “blame game” in the run-up to the 2026 Holyrood election amid growing unhappiness at the state of public services, the country’s leading pollster has said.
Professor John Curtice predicted neither party would want the risk of an early election if John Swinney fails to win support for his Government’s Budget in the New Year.
A recent survey of voting intentions among Scots predicted the SNP could cling on to a majority at Holyrood in 2026 with help from the Greens.
Curtice said support for the new Labour Government at Westminster had fallen “remarkably quickly” and was denting the party’s popularity in Scotland.
But the Strathclyde University academic warned this would not automatically mean a rise in support for the Nationalists.
Curtice said Swinney could enter 2025 with a “degree of hope” – but added the First Minister should accept “a lot of realism about the challenge ahead”.
He warned the rise of Nigel Farage’s right-wing Reform party had brought a degree of uncertainty over how the next government at Holyrood could be formed.
Curtice said: “The problem facing all the parties is, with Reform sitting at about 12 per cent or so, they could well make it very difficult for anyone to form a stable government.
“That is the prospect hanging over the parties. It’s a problem for Labour, and it’s a problem for the SNP.”
The polling expert said there was a “real risk” for Swinney the Nationalists could fall short of the 65 MSPs needed for a majority even with support from the Greens.
But Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar faces a similar issue as his party could lack a majority even if it won backing from the Lib Dems and Conservatives.
Sarwar has already declared his intention to form a minority government in 2026 that would work with other parties on an issue-by-issue basis.
But he would first have to secure a majority of MSPs to vote him in as First Minister in order to take power.
Curtice said: “In other words, the only way of forming some kind of government is a government that crosses the Unionist/Nationalist divide.
“Which is one of the reasons I think we will not be having an early election. But if one was called over the Budget, it could unleash a potentially very difficult situation. It is not in Labour or the SNP’s interests to call an early election.”
He continued: “Support for the Labour UK Government has fallen remarkably quickly by the standards of most recent governments and that seems to be having an even bigger effect north of the Border.
“It’s enough for the SNP to hang on to what they had at the general election in July. Picking up a bit, it would be enough for the SNP to emerge ahead.
“Unless there is a pro-independence majority at Holyrood, the independence debate is over. Because a crucial situation that has to be satisfied is you need enough MSPs who would vote for a referendum.
“The SNP faces the same problems as the UK Labour Government – which is the economy isn’t growing, so therefore tax revenues aren’t growing. Secondly, they’ve basically maxed out their borrowing card, and three, public services don’t work.
“So there is going to be a blame game going on. The SNP will try to blame the UK Government, and the UK Government will try to blame SNP incompetence.
“That’s the political battle, the outcome of which none of us can be sure. Whatever the difficulties the UK Government has, it’s not necessarily going to be that easy for the SNP to profit.”
To sign up to the Daily Record Politics newsletter, clickhere