CHARGERS at TEXANS
Saturday, 4:30 p.m., Chargers by 2 ½, 42 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The under sticks out here considering Jim Harbaugh’s typical grind it out mentality and Houston’s stumbling offense. The Texans come into the postseason with the lowest-ranked offense among playoff teams, and that really shows up in the red zone, where the Chargers defense happened to own the NFL’s lowest TD rate (45%) during the regular season. Field goals don’t lead to overs cashing in.
For that reason, as long as the line is under a FG, it’s a lean toward the Bolts. They’ve picked it up with a winning culture instilled by Harbaugh that should carry into the playoffs. Overall, they have the better coach and the better QB in Justin Herbert, with C.J. Stroud not quite following up on his great rookie season. The Texans depend on their great pass rush but the Chargers have two top tier tackles that can give Herbert time to work with Ladd McConkey against a vulnerable Houston secondary. The Chargers, as well, are the far more disciplined team when it comes to penalties, a reflection of their coach.
There is one hesitancy. The Texans are the team everyone seemingly wanted to draw in the playoffs and the no-respect angle can be a powerful thing in the hands of a motivator like DeMeco Ryans. Maybe that’s not as important a factor with a team like the Chargers, who had to battle to get into the playoffs, unlike the Texans, who won the AFC South almost by default. But it is a consideration.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Chargers and the under.
STEELERS at RAVENS
Saturday, 8 p.m., Ravens by 9 ½, 44
HANK’S HONEYS: With the Ravens having won their last four and the Steelers having lost their last four (including a 31-17 pasting from the Ravens on Dec. 21), this line has gotten a little out of hand. One would think that Mike Tomlin, whose teams have always been live dogs, would have the Steelers a lot more ready to play here. He’s often had John Harbaugh’s number. But a closer look shows that Pittsburgh has flopped in its last three playoff appearances, losing by 11, 21 and 14 points. If the Ravens get ahead early — and they are one of the highest-scoring first-half teams in the league — the Steelers could easily fall into the mindset with which they finished the regular season.
The Steelers’ chances of covering depend on their defense playing lights out because the mistake-prone offense isn’t putting up any points. That defense showed up in Week 18, holding the explosive Bengals to 19 points in another loss, but the Ravens are much-more balanced and have a bigger array of weapons, Derrick Henry chief among them. He’s been a playoff monster over the course of his career and comes off a 166-yard night against the Steelers in the that December meeting. Baltimore’s D, meanwhile, allowed the NFL’s fewest points per game over the last eight weeks of the season. They are peaking. Tomlin’s best option is to keep this a low-scoring game and he’ll set up his game plan that way. The under looks like the call.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Ravens and the under.
BRONCOS at BILLS
1 p.m., Bills by 8 ½, 47
HANK’S HONEYS: There is no doubt that the Bills are the better team but this much better? There are several reasons why the Broncos can stay in this game and give the Bills a scare. First, they have the better defense and that always counts in the playoffs, particularly when it’s the road team. Second, Sean Payton. He’s going to be expanding the playbook for the playoffs and focusing in on a Buffalo defense that’s been middle of the pack during the regular season. That also negates the rookie QB factor since the Bills don’t necessarily have a defense to rattle Bo Nix in his first playoff start. Besides, Nix is no ordinary rookie QB with 78 starts between college and the NFL. His offensive line allowed the lowest pressure rate in the NFL while the Bills ranked 30th in coverage when they don’t get pressure.
While we don’t see it happening, Josh Allen is the one reason to bet on a Bills blowout. He has the legs to extend plays against the Broncos’ formidable pass rush and that is even more important against a team that plays a lot of man coverage, as the Broncos do. The showdown in the red zone will be key. The Bills are almost automatic in the red zone. The Broncos rankled third in red zone defense.
Buffalo was 8-0 playing in front of the Bills Mafia during the regular season but the Broncos were 6-3 ATS on the road and they’re one team that isn’t going to shrivel up because of a little Western New York chill.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Broncos and the under.
PACKERS at EAGLES
4:30 p.m., Eagles by 4 ½, 45 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Jordan Love’s elbow is a factor. He’s been saying it’s sore and that can’t be good. Although he’s been the NFL’s highest-rated passer since Week 12, he’s lost WR Christian Watson and will have to rely heavily on Josh Jacobs being able to pound the ball against a stout Phill front. True, the Packers lit up the Eagles defense in the season opener in Brazil but that was before Vic Fangio’s scheme took hold. Love can get a bit loose against top tier defenses and he hasn’t seen many schemes like this one.
The Philly side isn’t without question marks, beginning with Jalen Hurts. It looks as though he will start but QBs coming out of concussion protocol don’t always bounce back quickly. And how willing will Hurts be to scramble? Much of the Eagles’ offense depends on Hurts’ rushing yards. We do think, however, that it’s still advantage Eagles. Although he scored twice, Philly didn’t take as much advantage of Saquon Barkley in the first meeting because the Eagles were still figuring things out. They really turned things on when they started to feature the ex-Giant and he hasn’t stopped since. The Packers can try to stack things up against him but that opens up the field for WRs A.J. Brown and DaVonta Smith with Green Bay CB Jaire Alexander on the shelf.
Finally, you have to be a little disappointed in the way the Packers finished the season against the Vikings and Bears the last two weeks. Meanwhile, the Eagles were able to rest their starters and still coast against the dilapidated Giants.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Eagles and the under.
COMMANDERS at BUCS
8 p.m., Bucs by 3, 50 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Be careful with this one. There is no clear cut choice because both teams have defensive deficiencies that the other can exploit. The Bucs can’t defend the pass. The Commanders can’t stop the run. The game will be decided by which team can control the tempo of the game.
The Bucs’ deficiencies in pass defense have been somewhat covered up recently because they haven’t faced a top tier QBs since Brock Purdy in Week 10. Jayden Daniels is step up over Spencer Rattler, Bryce Young, Tommy DeVito, etc. Todd Bowles blitzed Daniels unmercifully during the Bucs’ 37-20 rout in Week 1 but that was Daniels’ NFL debut. Since then, he has been outstanding both avoiding and converting against both the blitz and zone coverage, which are Bowles’ best strategic weapons. Tampa Bay can be burned deep and will have a difficult matchup in Terry McLaurin, beat up in the secondary as they are.
The Bucs should be able to run the ball. Bucky Irving has had a breakout rookie season and he’ll be up against a Commanders rush defense that has allowed 487 yards the last three games. That all changes if the Commanders can jump out to a lead with their passing attack. The Bucs are 1-6 SU when not scoring first. Baker Mayfield’s penchant for taking chances could start to haunt him in catchup mode. The Bucs do have an advantage as the more hardened team. They navigated through a brutal schedule and to win six of their last seven games to get into the playoffs for the third straight year. The Commanders have been somewhat of a Cinderella team and are playing with house money. With the football flying everywhere, we should see a lot of points. The over is the pick, even with this high a total.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bucs and the over.
VIKINGS at RAMS
Monday, 8 p.m., Vikings by 1 ½, 47 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: There’s a chance this game could be moved to Arizona because of the wild fires, but that’s not a great factor considering the Rams don’t generally have a big home field advantage. Where they do have an advantage is in the matchups. The Vikings defense wins with the blitz and Brian Flores never veers from his philosophy. But Matthew Stafford is a blitz beater. He did it when the Rams beat the Vikings by 10 during the regular season, with Stafford burning it for 279 yards and three TDs in that Week 8 contest. Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp were in their first games back from injury that week but they are fully healthy and well rested, as is RB Kyren Williams.
There is a caveat to that L.A. win. The Vikings were on a short week and weren’t expecting to see Nacua. They’ll be fully prepared this time. However, equally concerning for the Vikings is last week’s meltdown in that winner-take-all game in Detroit and teams have had problems this year the week after playing the Lions. The Lions previously compromised defense simply came after Sam Darnold and exposed him behind a battered offensive line. Minnesota did nothing in the red zone, and it wasn’t a one-game exception. The Vikings converted at just a 40% rate over the last two games of the year. The Rams have been excellent defending the red zone all year.
The Rams made some great defensive adjustments in the first game and held Aaron Jones to 58 yards rushing
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Rams and the under.
* * *
WEEK’S BEST BET: Ravens. Making up for last year.
LAST WEEK: 7-9, 8-8 over/under
OVERALL: 129-139-4, 133-136-3 over/under
BEST BETS: 9-9