When John Swinney reluctantly became First Minister last year nobody, least of all him, seemed enthusiastic about the appointment.
At the time, the SNP seemed to be on an unstoppable trajectory down the political toilet and unable to stop making stupid unforced errors.
From Operation Branchform to obsessing over unpopular gender politics and petty internal rivalries, it felt like the party and government was close to collapse.
Swinney had been dragged back into the fray as a last-ditch attempt to steady the ship before a younger leader was appointed.
But what a difference seven months has made. Even his toughest critics would have to agree that Swinney has managed to turn the party around by ending infighting and focusing away from divisive identity politics back on to the economy and public services.
Yes he has benefited from Labour’s post-election unpopularity but Swinney is still playing his hand well.
Because of Anas Sarwar’s declaration that Labour will abstain in the budget vote, Swinney can increase spending on the NHS and even reverse some of Labour’s most unpopular policies – using money Chancellor Rachel Reeves has handed Scotland.
There are potential banana skins in 2025 and there is a long time for things to change before Scotland goes to the polls next year.
The most obvious game-changing event is the possibility Operation Branchform – the police investigation into SNP finances – comes to a head in a way that will inflict huge reputational damage on the SNP.
The other would be Labour’s popularity nationally improving. He will also likely face questions from within his own party to lay out a new independence strategy.
Another elephant in the room is the rise of Nigel Farage’s Reform and the potential for it to win a number of seats in the Scottish Parliament which would have enormous repercussions for Scottish politics.
The outcome nobody is talking about is one where the only coalition that can work in Scotland between left-of-centre parties would be one between Labour and the SNP.
Swinney claims to be a bridge builder but it is yet to be seen if he is really willing to cross one for the good of the country.
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