John Swinney’s SNP has surged to a near ten-point lead over Labour in the first Westminster opinion poll of 2025. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has also leapfrogged the Scottish Tories into second place.

The July 4th general election saw the SNP vote collapse and Labour romp to a famous victory. Anas Sarwar’s party came first on 35.3%, the SNP trailed on 30% while the Conservatives were a distant third on 12.7% and Reform lagged on 7%.

But Keir Starmer’s Government has taken a hit in the polls after cutting winter fuel payments for pensioners and backing a tax-raising Budget. According to a new Survation poll for True North/Holyrood Sources, the SNP is on 33%, Labour is on 24% while Reform UK and the Conservatives are on 15% and 13%.

At 9%, the Lib Dems are broadly where they were on election day last year. The poll spells worrying news for Sarwar as he limbers up to contest next year’s Holyrood election.

Scottish Parliament polling also has Labour way down compared to the middle of last year and shows the SNP in line for a fifth term.

SNP MP Pete Wishart said: “This poll is an encouraging confirmation that people in Scotland are uniting behind the leadership of John Swinney and showing support for an SNP budget that protects our public services and invests in our economy and in our future. For the Labour Party in Scotland it shows that their new slogan is spot on – they do indeed have a ‘new direction’ – it’s called plummeting in the polls under Anas Sarwar. For senior figures in the Labour party their continued slump in the polls can hardly come as a surprise – Labour promised ‘change’ but the public are seeing that they have already lost control.

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