Seven of the eight quarterbacks starting the NFL’s Divisional Playoff Round were first-round picks.
Two were No. 1 overall picks in their respective NFL Drafts. Four of the eight were picked either No. 1 or No. 2 overall.
Six of the eight were taken in the top 10. And the other first-rounder is the Baltimore Ravens’ Lamar Jackson, who is on the verge of winning his third MVP award.
Tom Brady’s seven Super Bowls as a 2000 sixth-rounder proved that a franchise can get there in other ways.
San Francisco 49ers seventh-rounder Brock Purdy kept that hope alive by nearly winning the Super Bowl just last year.
Eagles 2020 second-round pick Jalen Hurts already has been to the Super Bowl once and is trying to get there again.
And Seahawks third-rounder Russell Wilson (2013) and Eagles third-rounder Nick Foles (2017) actually lifted the Lombardi Trophy.
But this year’s postseason bracket reinforces why quarterbacks are worth the investment and the risk in the top 10 of NFL Drafts — and why hitting on those selections means a major payoff.
The Lions’ Jared Goff (2016) and the Rams’ Matthew Stafford (2009) were No. 1 overall picks swapped between Detroit and L.A. Both have already played in a Super Bowl.
The Texans’ C.J. Stroud (2023) and the Commanders’ Jayden Daniels (2024) were the No. 2 overall picks in the two most recent NFL Drafts.
The Bills’ Josh Allen (seventh overall, 2018) and the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes (10th overall, 2017) were both top 10 picks. Mahomes, of course, has three rings and counting.
And the Ravens’ Jackson (32nd overall) snuck into the 2018 first round in one of the all-time evaluation whiffs by the entire league.
Hurts is the lone non-first rounder still playing.
Even in the Wild Card round, the pedigrees of the quarterbacks jumped onto the screen: 10 of 12 were former first-round picks, including the Chargers’ Justin Herbert (No. 6, 2020), Broncos rookie Bo Nix (No. 12, 2024), the Packers’ Jordan Love (No. 26, 2021), the Bucs’ Baker Mayfield (No. 1, 2018) and the Vikings’ Sam Darnold (No. 3, 2018).
That meant four of the five quarterbacks drafted in the 2018 first round were starting in this year’s playoffs, with former Arizona Cardinal Josh Rosen the lone exception.
It also helped two teams in the NFL Draft’s top 12 move into playoff contention immediately: the Commanders (No. 2) and the Broncos (No. 12).
Both of those franchises had a lot of other factors that contributed to their immediate turnaround: Washington changed everything from ownership on down and already had some talent on its roster; Denver coach Sean Payton and a strong defense were major factors in their move.
There were plenty of teams with former first-round QBs who didn’t make the playoffs, like the Dolphins, Jaguars, Jets, Bengals, Giants, Bears, Panthers and so on.
But remember: the Dolphins were in the playoffs with Tua Tagovailoa just last year. The Bengals were nearly Super Bowl champions in 2021. Aaron Rodgers won a Super Bowl and four MVP awards with the Packers before he ran out of juice and joined the Jets.
The stakes of missing on a quarterback pick are high, obviously.
Picking Anthony Richardson (No. 4, 2023), Zach Wilson (No. 2, 2021), Trey Lance (No. 3, 2021), Rosen (No. 10, 2018) or Mitchell Trubisky (No. 2, 2017) can and typically does cost GMs and/or coaches their jobs.
As rare as it is, however, there was a reason that former Cardinals GM Steve Keim drafted Kyler Murray No. 1 overall in 2019 just one year after whiffing on Rosen in 2018:
Not getting that position right is not an option.
To this day, it is fascinating to think about some Giants executives being high on Herbert in the 2019 draft but taking tackle Andrew Thomas at No. 4 overall instead, because they’d just selected Jones No. 6 overall in 2018.
Would taking Herbert have seemed like a renegade move at the time? Sure. Would it have been the wrong decision? Clearly not, regardless of Herbert’s bad showing last Saturday in Houston.
Within this context, the Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns and Giants hold the Nos. 1, 2 and 3 picks this April. The Las Vegas Raiders are picking at No. 6.
Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders and Miami’s Cam Ward loom as the class’ top prospects. Texas’ Quinn Ewers just declared.
Reaching for a player is dangerous. The Colts’ Richardson pick is a good example of how forcing a positional need — when the near-universal evaluation does not justify the investment — can set an organization back.
The overriding strategy behind that kind of selection is clear, however:
Without striking iron on a quarterback with first-round ability, an NFL franchise almost always will be on the outside looking in as the modern game passes it by.