Last year, five votes were all that separated Billy Wagner from baseball immortality.
The former Mets closer barely missed the cutoff for the National Baseball Hall of Fame’s Class of 2024, appearing on 73.8% of the ballots. Induction requires 75%.
Wagner received 284 votes when he needed 289.
It was a particularly brutal blow considering Wagner was in his ninth year of eligibility. Players get 10 years on the Hall of Fame ballot, making Tuesday night’s Class of 2025 unveiling a make-or-break announcement for Wagner.
He and another former Mets star, ex-teammate Carlos Beltrán, are among the more uncertain cases on this year’s ballot.
As of Monday afternoon, Wagner appeared on 84.2% of the 172 ballots that had been publicly released, according to Ryan Thibodaux’s vote tracker. That meant Wagner would need to be included on 67.0% of the remaining 220 ballots to be inducted in his final year of eligibility.
Beltran, meanwhile, had received 80.3% of the vote, meaning he would need to appear on 70.3% of the remaining ballots. Beltran — who received 57.1% of the vote last year — is in his third year of eligibility, so induction is likely coming sooner rather than later for the former five-tool center fielder.
The percentages on Thibodaux’s tracker tend to be a few ticks higher than the final number. Last year, Wagner appeared on 77.8% of the public ballots — four points higher than his actual amount.
But with Wagner having a 9.2% cushion through nearly 50% of the votes, momentum appears to be with the former flame-throwing left-hander.
Wagner pitched to a 2.31 ERA, a 0.998 WHIP and 1,196 strikeouts in 903.0 innings over 16 MLB seasons with the Houston Astros, Philadelphia Phillies, Mets, Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves from 1995-2010.
Wagner is naturally right-handed, but he began throwing from the left side after breaking his right arm twice as a child. Equipped with a fastball he once dialed up to 103.1 mph, Wagner recorded 422 saves, which rank eighth in MLB history and second among lefties.
But Hall of Fame voters have long been stingy with relievers.
Only eight relievers are in the Hall, and one of them, Dennis Eckersley, started 361 of his 1,071 appearances. Hoyt Wilhelm wasn’t voted in until his eighth time on the ballot, while it took Bruce Sutter 13 tries, back when players could remain on the ticket up to 15 years.
Lee Smith, whose 478 saves rank third in MLB history, was not voted in by the Baseball Writers Association of America during his eligibility period from 2003-17. Instead, Lee was inducted by the Today’s Game Era Committee in 2019.
But even among Hall of Famers, Wagner’s stats stand out.
Among all pitchers to throw at least 900 innings since 1920, Wagner’s 2.31 ERA is the second lowest, behind only Mariano Rivera’s 2.21. No one else’s ERA is under 2.50.
Wagner’s strikeout rate of 11.92 per nine innings ranks 13th in MLB history.
And Wagner’s 24.0 WAR (wins above replacement) is comparable to the 25.9 compiled by former San Diego Padres closer Trevor Hoffman, who was a third-ballot Hall of Fame selection in 2018.
A seven-time All-Star, Wagner spent most of four seasons with the Mets from 2006-09, pitching to a 2.37 ERA while nailing down 101 saves.
“It’s tough. I hate it,” Wagner told The Athletic last week of his Hall of Fame wait. “It’s just not been a very fun experience, especially when it comes down to your 10th and final ballot. It’s not going to be pleasant. It’s a grind, but in a couple of days, this will be over — one way or the other, good or bad.”
Beltrán, meanwhile, hit .279 with 435 home runs, 1,587 RBI, 1,582 runs, an .837 OPS and 312 stolen bases over 20 MLB seasons with the Kansas City Royals, Astros, Mets, San Francisco Giants, St. Louis Cardinals, Yankees and Texas Rangers from 1998-2017.
Seven of those seasons came with the Mets, who signed the switch-hitting Beltrán before the 2005 season to a franchise-record $119 million contract. With the Mets, Beltrán earned four of his nine All-Star selections and won each of his three Gold Gloves.
Beltrán is one of only five players in MLB history with at least 500 doubles, 400 home runs and 300 stolen bases.
His 86.4% success rate on stolen bases is the best of any player since 1920, while his 67.4 WAR ranks 10th ever among center fielders. Next up on that list is another Hall of Fame candidate in Andruw Jones, who, through 172 public ballots, had received 72.1% of the vote in his eighth year of eligibility.
Complicating Beltrán’s candidacy is his connection to the Astros’ 2017 sign-stealing scandal. Beltrán was the only player named in MLB’s investigation into the scandal, which the league completed in January 2020. The Mets, who had just hired Beltrán as their manager, parted ways with him before he ever managed a game.
Beltrán returned to the Mets in 2023 as a special assistant.
His and Wagner’s Hall of Fame cases are among the most intriguing during a year in which Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia are expected to be first-ballot selections.
Former Mets captain David Wright appeared on 11.5% of the first 172 ballots to become public.