Southport murderer Axel Rudakubana is expected to face a “living hell” in the prison system, experts predict, as he begins a life sentence for his heinous crimes.
The 18-year-old, sentenced on Thursday, will serve a minimum of 52 years behind bars for the “sadistic” murders of three young girls, the attempted murders of 10 others—including eight children—and charges related to the production of ricin and possession of an Al-Qaeda training manual.
Due to his age at the time of the offenses, Rudakubana presents unique challenges for the prison system. At just 17 when he committed the murders, the judge was unable to impose a whole-life order, despite the gravity of his crimes.
During sentencing, Mr. Justice Goose described the brutality of the attack: “In just 15 minutes, Rudakubana murdered three children and attempted to murder eight others, along with two adults. Only the escape of additional children prevented further loss of life. He will serve almost his entire life in custody. I believe it is likely he will never be released.”
Typically, offenders of Rudakubana’s age are detained in a Young Offender Institution (YOI) until they are old enough to be transferred to an adult prison. However, due to the severity of his crimes and his apparent propensity for violence, it is reported that Rudakubana has been sent directly to a Category A adult prison, such as London’s notorious Belmarsh, where he was held prior to sentencing.
Mark Fairhurst, national chairman of the Prison Officers’ Association, said Rudakubana would have the same rights as every other inmate – entitlement to showers, phone calls home and exercise – and would be offered isolation. Mr Fairhurst told The Sun : “If there was any intelligence he was at risk then he would be put in the segregation unit under isolation or to some other part of the prison where he is away from everyone else.”
He added: “His life will be absolute hell. He is target No.1.” It is well known that those who commit offences against children sit at the bottom of the so-called prison hierarchy.
Criminologist and psychologist Alex Iszatt told The Mirror that Axel Rudakubana’s obsession with extreme violence revealed a “desire for control, recognition, and perhaps a legacy.” She explained: “This craving for destruction appeared to be his way of leaving a mark on the world, as if violence was the only path to gain the recognition he so deeply sought.”
However, within the prison system, Rudakubana’s infamy is unlikely to serve him well. Instead, it is expected to provoke disgust, outrage, and potential violence from fellow inmates. Senior investigator and prison behavior specialist John Eastham shared with The Mirror: “Axel Rudakubana’s life behind bars will be shaped by his age, the intense media scrutiny surrounding his crimes, and his behavior both in court and within the prison system.
“At just 18, he may initially be housed in a young offenders’ institution or placed in a segregated unit within an adult prison for his protection. However, due to the nature of his crimes and their high-profile nature, hostility from other inmates is almost inevitable. High-profile offenders, particularly those involved in heinous crimes, often become targets in prison.”
This has been seen in recent cases, such as Urfan Sharif, who was sentenced to life for the murder of his 10-year-old daughter, Sara Sharif, and attacked by fellow inmates just weeks after entering prison. Experts believe Rudakubana will similarly face segregation for his protection, potentially delaying his integration into the general prison population.
Eastham added that Rudakubana’s behavior in court—marked by disruptions and a lack of remorse—raises questions about his willingness to engage in rehabilitation. “Reports of his satisfaction with the destruction he caused indicate a troubling lack of accountability and empathy,” he said. “This attitude could hinder his participation in programs aimed at addressing his behavior and reducing the risk of reoffending. That said, the prison system does offer structured opportunities for reflection and reform.”
With at least five decades behind bars ahead of him, Rudakubana will have significant time to confront the gravity of his crimes, though Eastham noted that meaningful rehabilitation will require a fundamental shift in his mindset. “His current disposition suggests that change will be extremely difficult, if not impossible,” he said.
Eastham also warned that Rudakubana’s sought-after notoriety will backfire within the prison system. “While the prison environment provides avenues for personal growth, his infamy and the violent nature of his crimes are likely to make him a target among inmates. This could lead to a more isolated and hostile experience, complicating his future even further,” he explained.
Former prisoner and British Army veteran Rich Jones echoed these sentiments, predicting that Rudakubana will face violence during his incarceration. Speaking to The Liverpool Echo , Jones said: “If people can get to him, they will. Once he gets onto the wings, if someone has an axe to grind, they’ll grind it with him because of what he’s done.”
Jones, who served seven years for conspiracy to supply cocaine, believes Rudakubana will experience ongoing threats and segregation. “There will be some sort of justice somewhere down the line, and he’ll have to deal with it for the rest of his life,” Jones said, adding that Rudakubana’s prison journey will likely be a “bumpy ride.”
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