(InvestigateTV) — The buses typically begin rolling at 3 a.m., and despite the often single-digit temperatures, tens of thousands of people will clamor in for a celebration that will make headlines around the world.
Their destination: a remote Pennsylvania hillside that, while quiet almost every other day of the year, vibrates with anticipation as the crowd awaits a very important announcement.
“It’s magical. Truthfully,” said Tom Dunkel, president of the organization responsible for the event.
And the guest of honor, he said, is inimitable:
“There’s only one Santa Claus. There’s only one Easter Bunny — and there’s only one Punxsutawney Phil.”
Known as the “Seer of Seers, Sage of Sages, Prognosticator of Prognosticators and Weather Prophet Extraordinary,” the [reportedly] 139-year-old groundhog will emerge from his burrow and, with the help of Dunkel and the other members of his Inner Circle, will make his call about whether spring is coming early this year, or if six more weeks of winter are to be expected.
This year’s Farmer’s Almanac has already speculated that due to snow showers and cloudy skies, Phil will not see his shadow and will predict an early spring, but it won’t be until the top-hatted members of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club hear directly from the world’s most famous marmot that this year’s call is official.
“In his zoo, he gathers together, you know, the almanac and weather maps and charts and he checks his barometer and all his weather instruments, and he’s as prepared as he possibly can for the big morning of Groundhog Day,” Dunkel said.
Dunkel and the sea of adoring fans who gather on Gobbler’s Knob may think the buck stops with their particular woodchuck — but Phil is not the only creature who makes a prediction each year.
From other whistle pigs and similar mammals such as prairie dogs, opossums and hedgehogs, to ducks, frogs, fish and other, more exotic fauna, there are dozens of animals across the country whose weather forecasts are followed each February.
And while some have opined that Phil and the animal prognosticators who operate in his shadow are no better than a coin flip at predicting the onset of Spring — an InvestigateTV analysis of hyper-local weather data found that, for many, their calls are more than just a wild guess.
While the modern Groundhog Day is rooted in the cultural tradition of the Pennsylvania Dutch — who researchers believe substituted the groundhogs common in the Northeast and Midwest for the badgers used by their Germanic ancestors — humans have been marking Feb. 1-2 as an important time for millennia, with festivals and religious feasts such as Imbolc, Candlemas and St. Brigid’s Day.
“Groundhog Day is the midway point between the winter solstice and the spring equinox,” meteorologist, college professor and Punxsutawney Phil superfan Joe Murgo said, “and at that point in time, I don’t care what Phil says: The days start lengthening at a much faster rate and, no matter what, the brighter days are ahead.”
Murgo has been present at Phil’s annual prediction every year for more than two decades, and said while other meteorologists may scoff, he firmly stands behind the tradition.
“I teach at a university, and they’re like, ‘Well, how can you get behind this?’ and I’m like, ‘How can you not? Come on, what is the harm?’” He said. “It is a day in February celebrating — no matter what, things are changing. A change of the seasons is coming our way.”
Whether it’s because it provides a break from the bleakness of winter, or perhaps the lingering influence of the 1993 film that brought the celebration to the masses through cinema, Murgo said he’s seen Groundhog Day celebrations continue to grow in popularity — and Phil become the most famous weather forecaster in the world.
“Yeah, I’m going to have to rip on my friend Jim Cantore. Phil’s got to be it,” he said, chuckling.
However, Murgo said he thinks Phil’s notoriety and acclaim could be why more and more creatures seem to be crawling out of the proverbial woodwork to predict when Spring will arrive.
“I think what it is, is Phil became so famous that other areas are like, ‘No, we’re going to have our own, and we’re going to have our own celebrations,’” he said. “But there’s only one groundhog, and that’s Phil.”
Dunkel wholeheartedly agreed.
“He is the only true weather forecasting groundhog in the world,” he said.
Using existing lists available online as well as news coverage from affiliate stations across the country, InvestigateTV compiled a list of weather-predicting animals that have made at least five Groundhog Day predictions since 2015.
Punxsutawney Phil may be the one true groundhog to Murgo, Dunkel and the patron saint of prognosticating’s international cohort of fans, but InvestigateTV found there are actually about three dozen of the largest member of the squirrel family who have regularly given annual predictions over the last 10 years.
Furry, feathered or otherwise, there are also at least two dozen more communities where some other creature makes a judgement call on the start of Spring — including a few who may be better at the task.
Historically, animal prognosticators have been eschewed as folly by meteorological experts and seen as no more accurate than random chance.
For example, in 2024 the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released a report that based on national average temperatures for February and March, Phil’s predictions have been correct only 30% of the time.
But given Phil and his counterparts only have access to the observed weather conditions and climate histories of their immediate areas, InvestigateTV sought to do a more specific weather analysis based on each animal’s location.
Using hyperlocal data from the National Centers for Environmental Information, InvestigateTV utilized plant growth formulas employed by the United States Department of Agriculture to determine the date Spring began each year, and whether that date occurred within six weeks of Groundhog Day.
For the nearly five-dozen animals with at least five years of available prediction data, InvestigateTV found these creatures are, on average, correct about the arrival of spring around 60% of the time.
Some have better records, including both Phil and Woodstock Willie in Illinois — the alleged descendent of the groundhog who starred as Phil in the 1993 film — who both saw 80% accuracy rates from 2015-2024.
While groundhogs are the most common type of prognosticator by far — accounting for roughly a third of the animals evaluated — non-groundhogs have a slightly better prediction history of 64% correct, while groundhogs are right about 57% of the time.
In fact, two less-traditional prognosticators — Sand Mountain Sam, an Alabama opossum, and Scramble the Duck from Connecticut — have been right 90% of the time, beating out the supposedly infallible Phil.
When asked for comment on what seem to be stronger numbers than the so-called “Seer of Seers,” Dunkel, the president of the Punxsutawney club, was adamant about the unmarred success of the cultural icon.
“As far as Phil and I and our discussions and how we have seen the weather unfold after each time, after each prediction, Phil’s 100% correct,” Dunkel said. “Phil’s 100% accurate, and he does not, Phil does not, I’m afraid he doesn’t recognize any other animal forecasters.”
According to InvestigateTV’s analysis, 2019 was a rough year for the animals across the board, with only 64% of those who made a prediction getting it wrong — including Phil. Last year, however, was better — nearly three-quarters of the creatures got it right in 2024, as did Phil.
Despite using a methodology that accounts for regional climate differences and that offered broad deference to the animals in question, Murgo asserted it’s unfair to doubt the animals’ calls — especially Phil’s — because determining the onset of Spring is incredibly relative.
“You can’t prove them wrong because there’s no set definition. It’s the best forecast you can ever make. There’s no hard verification to it,” he said.
While all involved see this as a fun lookahead to spring with a special forecast, some people have even taken not-so-serious offense to any rare instance where he’s wrong.
Phil was once hit with a tongue-in-cheek indictment by an Ohio prosecutor who was tired of the cold weather and accused the Seer of Seers of “misrepresenting Spring.” While those “charges” were notably dropped, the beloved groundhog still sometimes faces sarcastic mock threats of legal action over his “incorrect” predictions from those who want spring’s arrival sooner than later.
Even the crowd of faithful Phil fans generally cheers for a forecast of early spring and boos a call of more winter, Dunkel said.
Still, he emphasized that the world’s most famous rodent is simply telling it like it is.
“He calls it like he sees it and how he’s prepared for it,” he said.
Because shadow or no shadow, Phil’s Feb. 2 plans are always the same.
“He’s going to go back to bed one way or the other.”
Associate producer Charles Roth contributed to this report.
Copyright 2025 Gray Media Group, Inc. All rights reserved.