In building their 2025 rotation, the Mets bet on upside.
They re-signed Sean Manaea, who, with a lowered arm slot, delivered a career-best season in 2024.
They added Frankie Montas, whose mid-90s fastball and swing-and-miss splitter headline one of the nastiest repertoires in baseball.
The signed Clay Holmes, believing the two-time All-Star reliever’s untapped arsenal will allow him to transition to the starting rotation.
And they’re excited about Kodai Senga, who missed all but one start last season due to shoulder and calf strains.
“This rotation has the potential to pretty much throw, I would say, five No. 1s, every five days,” Montas said last weekend during the Amazin’ Day fan festival at Citi Field.
Of course, there are question marks.
Montas, 31, is three years removed from a 2021 season in which he finished sixth in American League Cy Young Award voting with the Oakland A’s. He is 12-23 with a 4.45 ERA over the past three seasons with the A’s, Yankees, Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers, and he missed nearly all of 2023 after undergoing right shoulder surgery.
Last year, Montas pitched to a 4.84 ERA with 148 strikeouts over 150.2 innings with the Reds and Brewers. He signed a two-year, $34 million contract with the Mets in December.
Holmes, 31, posted a 2.69 ERA over parts of four seasons with the Yankees from 2021-24, exclusively as a reliever, but he has started only four of his 311 career MLB appearances.
The right-hander, who signed a three-year, $39 million deal, leaned on a power sinker and a slider out of the bullpen. He is working this winter on incorporating a changeup, while his four-seamer served him well as he threw it more last postseason.
Short-term signings paid off for the Mets last year, when they got a 3.47 ERA over 181.2 innings from Manaea and a 3.91 ERA over 182 innings from Luis Severino, who has since left for the A’s.
Montas and Holmes both cited the successes of Manaea and Severino among the reasons why they signed with the Mets.
The Japanese-born Senga, meanwhile, dominated in 2023 during his first MLB season, pitching to a 2.98 ERA and 202 strikeouts over 166.1 innings, but he missed the first four months of last season after being diagnosed in spring training with a shoulder injury.
In his 2024 debut, Senga racked up nine strikeouts in 5.2 innings against the Atlanta Braves, but he suffered a calf strain while trying to get out of the way on a pop-up. He returned in the postseason on a reduced pitch count but was not himself, surrendering seven runs in five innings over three appearances.
Pitching coach Jeremy Hefner and the Mets’ training staff have spent time with Senga, 32, in Japan this offseason.
“He’s going through the normal January progression that he goes through, and we expect him to be a normal pitcher come spring training,” president of baseball operations David Stearns said at last weekend’s event.
Montas and Holmes figure to slot behind the right-handed Senga and the left-handed Manaea, who got a three-year, $75 million contract. Another left-hander, David Peterson, also returns to the rotation mix after posting a career-best 2.90 ERA in 21 starts last year.
“I think you’ve always got to win a job,” Peterson, 29, said. “No matter what your status is, the team should be able to put the best five guys out there. That’s always the goal, to be one of the guys that starts games for this team and helps lead in that sense, in terms of getting the game going in the right direction. It’s always fun to have that healthy competition.”
Other options include Griffin Canning, 28, who signed a one-year deal with the Mets after posting a 5.19 ERA in 32 games (31 starts) for the Los Angeles Angels last season; and Paul Blackburn, whom the Mets acquired in a July trade with the A’s.
A 2022 All-Star selection, Blackburn made only five starts for the Mets before a spinal fluid leak in his mid-back ended his season. Blackburn, 31, recently threw from the mound and is “progressing well,” manager Carlos Mendoza said.
The Mets are expected to use a six-man rotation at times this season, which better aligns with the pitching schedule Senga operated under in Japan.
Medoza said he is “very comfortable” with the Mets’ rotation depth.
“You’re going to need a lot of arms to get through 162-plus [games],” Mendoza said. “We like not only the top of our rotation, but we like our depth. … It’s an exciting group and they are all going to contribute to this team.”
The Mets’ minor-league depth includes top pitching prospect Brandon Sproat, 24, who totaled a 3.40 ERA and 131 strikeouts in 116.1 innings last year but struggled in seven Triple-A starts. Another young arm, Christian Scott, is expected to miss the season after undergoing elbow surgery.
Montas likes how every member of the Mets’ rotation gives hitters a different look.
“There’s a lot of guys that have had a lot of success; I think it’s just a matter of us going out and staying near that potential,” added Holmes.
“The top end’s there for every guy. It’s just a matter of us learning from each other, staying healthy, and I think the potential is through the roof.”