The European league phases have now all concluded, with the new format receiving glowing reviews across Europe.
In Scotland, Hearts squandered a golden opportunity at home against the bottom side in the Conference League, missing out on a historic chance to reach knockout football for the first time since 1989. Celtic, meanwhile, enjoyed their best Champions League campaign in over a decade, sealing superb progression with a late own goal against the winless bottom-placed side Young Boys. Rangers also exceeded expectations, securing an impressive eighth-place finish—this after a disastrous start saw them crash out of the Champions League at the hands of Dynamo Kyiv – a side that ultimately finished just one point off the bottom of the Europa League table.
The fact that even the ‘worst’ teams in each competition troubled all three Scottish clubs highlights just how difficult it is for any side from Scotland to navigate the league phase. In European football, there are no easy games, no matter the opposition. The scale of the achievement is clear: this marks the first time in five years that two Scottish teams have reached the knockout stages without ‘dropping down’ from a higher competition. In fact, it’s only the third time in the last 15 years that two Scottish clubs will compete in post-Christmas European football – an uncommon feat.
Celtic will learn whether Real Madrid or Bayern Munich will be their opponents in the first leg at Celtic Park – a daunting but fitting reward for their strong campaign. Rangers, having bypassed the knockout round, must wait until February 21 to discover their last-16 opponent. It could be Sam Lammers’ Twente, Jose Mourinho’s Fenerbahçe, a Bodo/Glimt in pre-season, or Belgian side Anderlecht, who currently sit one place below Thursday’s opponents Union St. Gilloise. For Celtic, this new format has allowed them to thrive after years of European underperformance.
Scoring ten goals in the Champions League group stage for the first time since 2003, winning three Champions League matches for the first time since 2012, their fans will have been as delighted as their financial director as they secured a massive €45m in prize money. Rangers, meanwhile, have now won three or more group-stage matches in back-to-back seasons for the first time in their history, earning €18m. They’ve reached the last 16 in all five of their last five Europa League campaigns. Truly unprecedented consistency. Thursday’s 2-1 victory over Union St. Gilloise marked their fourth win – a feat they only previously achieved in 2020. Hearts, despite failing to seize their chance, still earned a respectable seven points and banked €6m for the second time in three seasons.
Despite these successes, Scotland’s coefficient remains well short of where it needs to be. Our five clubs have collectively earned a solid 8.25 points so far, yet due to the loss of our fantastic 2019/20 season from the rolling five-year coefficient, we started this campaign in 17th place with a mountain to climb. The target remains a 12th-place finish, the crucial threshold that ensures a third Scottish entrant receives guaranteed Conference League phase football—an opportunity Hearts and Aberdeen have benefited from in recent years.
To illustrate what needs to happen for Scotland to have a truly exceptional season and secure 12th place in the UEFA coefficient rankings, I’ll manufacture a hypothetical scenario, speculating on how far the remaining teams might progress and how many points that would add to each country. In this scenario, where Scotland is chasing down Norway in 12th, I’ll assume we overtake Austria who are currently in 13th place.
Austria are 0.8 points ahead, and their sole representative, Rapid Vienna, is in the Conference League’s last 16. However, Norway presents a tougher challenge. They have two teams in the knockout rounds: Bodo/Glimt in the Europa League, who will face either Twente or Fenerbahce in Friday’s draw, and Molde, who have a Conference League knockout tie against Shamrock Rovers. Norway’s season doesn’t start until the end of March, so hopefully playing these matches in their pre-season is to their detriment.
Let’s say Bodo/Glimt earns just 0.25 points (one draw) and is eliminated by either Twente or Fenerbahce, while Molde adds 0.5 points (one win) and progresses to the last 16. That would give Norway a combined 0.875 points, including the 0.125 bonus for Molde’s last 16 appearance. Molde then loses both legs of their last-16 tie, leaving Norway with a 2.637 point lead over Scotland’s current total.
This is already an optimistic prediction of Norway’s performance, but let’s add a bit more hope. Imagine Celtic earn a historic victory over Real Madrid or Bayern Munich at Celtic Park, giving Scotland 0.4 points to start. They then lose in the away leg and are eliminated, but still a valiant effort after being handed the toughest knockout round draw in the competition.
Meanwhile, Rangers start off with an away draw to Twente – or whoever – before winning at home. This would add 0.6 points, plus a 0.2 bonus for reaching the Quarter Finals. There, Rangers are drawn against Roma, beating them at Ibrox for another 0.4 points.
They lose the away leg but still progress to the semis, earning another 0.2 bonus points. Scotland’s Coefficient has now been topped up by an extra 1.8 points In this fantasy, Manchester United stand between Rangers and a second European final in three seasons.
Rangers defeat a lacklustre United side, winning at Ibrox and securing a last-minute draw at Old Trafford, adding 0.8 points, including the bonus for reaching the Final. At this point, Scotland trails Norway by just 0.037 points, as a Scottish team heads to Spain for a European final for the third time since 2003. Here, it’s of course Ange Postecoglou who is reunited with Rangers, in Bilbao on May 21. Rangers draw the final, earning 0.2 coefficient points and lifting Scotland into 12th place, saving the coefficient and the guaranteed European football for the Scottish Cup winner. As for the outcome of the penalty shootout—well, that’s yours to decide upon.