In his continuing frustration at getting the Mets to go beyond three years for Pete Alonso, or anybody to pony up $200 million for Alex Bregman, here’s a sudden thought for Scott Boras: How about ringing up the Dodgers? They’re signing everyone this offseason, even if they don’t need them.
OK, we jest…sort of. Boras, of course, has had dialogue with the Dodgers, especially about Bregman, because the Dodgers have emerged as the franchise with the most-est. Their Guggenheim Partners ownership has an estimated $335 billion value, their $7 billion local local television contract is by far the highest in the industry, and it would now seem they have a burgeoning monopoly on the best players in Japan — all of which has led to an unlimited spending budget that, with all the luxury tax factored in, will take their total payroll for 2025 to almost $500 million.
And even though he wasn’t necessarily talking about himself, Hal Steinbrenner sounded the alarm bell about the Dodgers last week when he said: “It’s difficult for most of us owners to be able to do the kind of things that they’re doing.” It was in line with something else he said last year — that clubs should not have to spend $300 million to get to the World Series because $300 million payrolls “are simply not sustainable.”
Well now that’s $500 million and that does not include another industry high $1.039 billion in deferred Dodger money in all these contracts.
Not that the Yankees, who are still the highest valued team in baseball ($7.55 billion compared to the Dodgers’ $5.4 billion) aren’t again going to have a payroll in excess of $300 million — even after bidding $760 million for Juan Soto and losing out to Steve Cohen. I have no doubt Steinbrenner is now relieved Soto rejected the Yankees and went for the most bucks, but I also think he was talking for his fellow owners about what has become this unbelievable payroll disparity the Dodgers have now created.
He was talking about Bill DeWitt in St. Louis, John Sherman in Kansas City, Jerry Reinsdorf with the White Sox, Paul Dolan in Cleveland, Jim Pohlad in Minnesota, Mark Attanasio in Milwaukee, John Stanton in Seattle — individual primary owners of mostly middle market teams who can’t possibly compete with the vast resources of the Guggenheims once the latter decide to flex their wealth, as they have now done this offseason: Blake Snell ($182 million with $60 million deferred), Teoscar Hernandez ($66 million; $23 million deferred), Tommy Edman ($74 million; $25 million deferred) and not one but two of the top closers on the free agent market in Tanner Scott ($72 million; $21 million deferred and Kirby Yates ($13 million) — outbidding the Mets on both — all on top of the $700 million they spent last year on Shohei Ohtani.
As a global investment firm, the Guggenheims are able to invest all that deferred money and make more than enough money on dividends to cover the interest. Most of the other owners aren’t able to do that — at least to the degree the Dodgers have done with deferred money.
“This is really good for baseball,” insisted Dodgers president Stan Kasten last week, noting how the Dodgers, having supplanted the Yankees as the most hated team in baseball, will be filling visiting ballparks.
I don’t know of too many people outside of Los Angeles who would agree with that.
What’s interesting, however, is how — the Soto sweepstakes notwithstanding and the Yankees’ subsequent $218 million splurge on Max Fried — none of the other clubs have spent big this offseason (much to Boras’ dismay). You might think, with a new collective bargaining agreement coming up in 2026, this is a subtle message that they’ve become resigned to the fact the only way they can compete with the Dodgers is with a salary cap.
Example: After losing Snell to the Dodgers, the Giants plunged into the free agent market, signing shortstop Willy Adames to a team record seven year, $182 million contract — then sat back and did virtually nothing else, other than signing 41-year-old Justin Verlander. Are they seriously going to go with LaMonte Wade and Wilmer Flores at first base again this year where Alonso would be an ideal fit? It’s almost as if, having proved they could land a big ticket free agent after losing out on so many others the last couple of years, the Giants watched the Dodgers load up and conceded it wasn’t worth spending any more money on improving their club. (There was also the 6-7 presence of first baseman/right fielder Bryce Eldridge, their top prospect who hit .292 with 23 homers and 92 RBI in 116 games at four levels last year and who they now apparently prefer to play first base.)
Similar to the Giants, the Blue Jays struck out on numerous attempts to sign major free agents — most notably Ohtani and Soto — before finally landing Anthony Santander for five years, $92.5 million and then Max Scherzer on a one-year, $15.5 million deal last week. But at the same time, they made a point to reporters last week that they were no longer in on Alonso, who would also be a good fit in Toronto and allow the Jays to move Vlad Guerrero Jr. to his favored position, third base. Nevertheless, while signing Guerrero to an extension remains the Jays’ top priority, there is speculation that Scherzer, also a Boras client who wants nothing more than another ring, would not have signed with Toronto without assurances they were going to spend further to improve the club.
No matter where Alonso and Bregman end up signing, at this point neither of them figures to get anywhere near the money they were seeking at the beginning of this offseason. As Boras has discovered, for a lot of reasons — uncertainty over their local TV revenue, the increased reliance on analytics — clubs just aren’t spending this winter. It could be, too, a lot of ‘em are spooked by the Dodgers.