The SNP will be the biggest party at Holyrood at the next election as Labour has “imploded” and is set to lose seats, a new poll has suggested.
A poll carried out for The Herald by Find Out Now put support for the SNP at 31 per on the constituency vote and 25 per cent on the list vote.
It put Labour’s constituency vote at 19 per cent and its list vote at 15 per cent while the Lib Dems were at 10 per cent and 13 per cent, as were the Scottish Greens.
The poll put the Scottish Tories at 12 per cent on the constituency vote and 13 per cent on the list while Reform was at 13 per cent on the constituency and 11 per cent on the list. Alba was at two per cent in the constituency vote and seven per cent on the list.
Analysis by polling expert John Curtice suggested the SNP would win 51 seats, down from 64 at the 2021 election. Labour would win 16 – down six.
The Conservatives would win 15 seats, as would the Scottish Liberal Democrats and the Scottish Greens, while Alba would have eight and Reform nine, the analysis suggests.
There would be 74 MSPs from pro-independence parties, which would mean a pro-independence majority at Holyrood.
Curtice told The Herald: “To be honest, the polling tells us there is no dramatic breakthrough here, it is just that Labour’s difficulties seem to continue. Reform’s rise is well-maintained. The SNP, if anything, is slipping back on these polls compared to previous polls.
“But the point here is the SNP finds itself where they are basically because Labour support has imploded. That just gives the SNP the chance of forming the next government, albeit from a rather weaker position than it is at the moment.”
The poll of 1,334 people was carried out by Find Out Now between January 15 and 20. It found that if a Westminster election was held tomorrow, 31 per cent of those questioned said they would vote SNP while 18 per cent said Labour.
Support for the Tories was at 12 per cent, the Lib Dems at 10 per cent, the Greens at seven per cent, Reform at 17 per cent and others at five per cent. Analysis by Curtice suggests this would result in 31 seats for the SNP and would give Labour 11, the Lib Dems six and the Tories five.
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