The scrutiny of Anas Sarwar’s position on Reform UK shows the hellish situation he finds himself in. Becoming the next First Minister seemed to be a foregone conclusion after the Labour’s general election triumph.
Polls last year predicted an SNP collapse and Sarwar was on course to be the first Labour occupant of Bute House in nearly two decades.
Sixty five votes are needed at Holyrood to guarantee victory in the vote for First Minister and Sarwar appeared a shoo-in. Plan A was to rely on the combined total of Labour and Lib Dem MSPs without the reputational hassle of turning to the Tories.
But the failings of the Starmer Government have torpedoed this strategy and Nigel Farage’s Reform have become part of the story.
If some of the latest polls are accurate, Labour are miles behind the SNP but there is still a chance of a pro-UK majority at Holyrood. The only way for Sarwar to replace Swinney in these circumstances would be to have the Lib Dems, Tories and Reform unite behind him.
Sarwar has pitched himself as a uniter, not a divider, so justifying his reliance on a right wing gang of deplorables would be a nightmare.
His language on cooperation with Reform – no “coalitions or agreements” – is vague. No one is seriously suggesting Labour would invite Reform MSPs to sit round the Cabinet table, nor would they ever strike a Bute House Agreement with Farage.
But shady backroom talks, with nothing written down, are the stuff of politics and could take place to install Sarwar as First Minister.
A better approach for the Scottish Labour leader would be to rediscover his mojo and get back on the front foot. His party’s conference this month is an opportunity to showcase bold policies and present himself as a First-Minister-in-waiting.
He needs to win big next year and forget about a back door to power.
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