SUPER BOWL LIX: EAGLES vs. CHIEFS in NEW ORLEANS
6:30 p.m., Chiefs by 1 ½, 49 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Let’s begin with one undeniable set of facts. While luck and favorable calls have certainly contributed to the Chiefs’ run of success, they nonetheless possess a generational quarterback in Patrick Mahomes, an NFL playoff record-holding receiver in Travis Kelce, a stud DT in Chris Jones, a shutdown cornerback in Trent McDuffie, the league’s best play caller in Andy Reid and a defensive coordinator whose schemes have won three Super Bowls in Steve Spagnuolo. That’s what the Eagles are up against.
At the same time, the Eagles bring into the game a dimension that hasn’t been seen in a Super Bowl in a generation, a breakaway running threat in Saquon Barkley. Nearly every recent Super Bowl has been about shutting down the opponent’s passing game. Here, the key to the game is how Kansas City limits Barkley’s effectiveness. Spags will certainly change his defense to focus on Barkley (instead of spying on Josh Allen in the title game) but while the Chiefs finished with a top 10 rushing defense, their best success came early in the season. Notably, they have allowed an average of 148 yards in their two playoff games and were not effective against Buffalo’s James Cook. Jones’ presence in the middle is a huge deterrent but the Eagles run it inside and outside the tackles at roughly the same rate and use their huge, athletic O-line to attack the perimeter, springing Barkley. Spagnuolo attacks the run by sending his linebackers downhill. Barkley, of course, is expert at making tacklers miss, especially if they are over-aggressive. O-line injuries are the X-factor with both C Cam Jurgens (back) and OG Landon Dickerson (knee) hurting. Both, however, practiced full with the two weeks’ time seemingly beneficial.
The same question can be asked of QB Jalen Hurts, who, while moving better in the NFC championship game, still looked a bit unsure when making sharp cuts. Should Hurts be close to regaining his normal mobility, the Chiefs will not able to use as many resources against Barkley. Hurts’ injury is no longer affecting his ability to throw and the Eagles will take shots downfield. No one has dared challenge McDuffie, who will line up opposite A.J. Brown, the guy who got the best of him when McDuffie was a rookie in Super Bowl LVII. Given how the physical Brown excels against man coverage, Hurts will not shy away. Also factor in Dallas Goedert as a target. The Chiefs gave up as many passing yards to tight ends as any team in the NFL. The Eagles don’t find themselves in third-and-long situations that often but when they do, Spagnuolo sends the house and Hurts has one of the worst passer ratings against the blitz. Outside of George Karlaftis when applied as an edge rusher, K.C.’s pass rush isn’t scary when playing it straight. Spags did a masterful job of scheming against Buffalo’s fourth-and-short plays no matter what anyone thinks of that review, but the Eagles’ tush-push is in a category by itself.
All that said, the Eagles defense is more capable of stopping the Chiefs attack than vice versa. Mahomes is very familiar with Vic Fangio’s defense. He did well when he faced it against the Broncos and last year in the playoffs against the Dolphins. But those team didn’t have a dominant defensive front like the one Fangio has this year. It should hold the Chiefs’ mundane running game in check and has a chance to get to Mahomes early. Most of the Philly pass pressure comes from the inside, where Jalen Carter (fighting an illness) creates havoc. Fast pressure into a QB’s face has long been a recipe for success against mobile QBs like Mahomes. Both of K.C.’s OTs are suspect, so we should see plenty of stunts and games to exploit that.
The fascinating thing to watch is whether Fangio varies from his umbrella scheme of coverage, which forces an offense to settle for underneath throws. That, of course, is exactly how the Chiefs move the football and in Kelce, they have a tight end who’s better than anyone at finding soft spots in zones. Meanwhile Playoff Pat is always capable of taking over a game, specifically whenever the situation calls for it.
If you’re a trends person, the most interesting one of all is that since 2003, teams with a first-round bye are 0-10 ATS against teams that played the first week. The ’09 Steelers are the only such team to have won SU. And, with so much riding on turnovers, it should be noted that Philly has gone five straight games without a turnover and has a turnover margin of 20-2 in its last six games.
The bottom line? It’s a coin toss. The Chiefs always figure out ways to win. The Eagles have more ways to win. The Chiefs have the intangibles. The Eagles have the deeper roster. Considering everything, it’s a lean to the team down the turnpike, with a prop bet on Saquon as MVP.
Turning to the total, we are talking about two outstanding defenses, with the Eagles elite. They have held 15 of their last 16 opponents to 23 or fewer points. Yes, both teams were involved in high-scoring games last year. But over the course of the season, the Chiefs were a methodical team and the Eagles don’t mind playing that way. What’s more, it might be the only way the Chiefs win this. We’re seeing a first half where the teams play chess, feeling each other out, so a first half under is definitely the way to go, leaning toward the second half under. The full game total seems to be a bit inflated and may go even higher, making it a lean to the under.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Eagles and the under.
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LAST WEEK: 1-1, 0-2 over/under
POSTSEASON: 5-6-1, 6-6 over/under
BEST BETS: 3-0