Even Anas Sarwar’s allies know the Scottish Labour leader as a cautious politician who is averse to taking big risks. He reads the room before making decisions and considers issues carefully before committing himself.
His calculated style of leadership has worked so far and he was vindicated in July’s general election hammering of the SNP. But his studious approach has run its course and he needs to be adventurous and daring if he wants to win next year.
His party conference this weekend is the ideal place to start.
It is a given that Scottish Labour’s poor poll rating has been caused by the mis-steps of a stuttering UK Government. But equally it would be naive to believe Labour’s success last year was based on enthusiasm for their brand.
Keir Starmer won in England because voters were desperate to chuck out the Tories. Sarwar hit a home run in Scotland because voters wanted to send a message to the Conservatives and the SNP. Their collective success was based on a negative, not a positive, a fact borne out by Labour winning a landslide on 33.7% of the vote.
Sarwar and Starmer capitalised on a perfect set of circumstances and reaped the electoral rewards, but Holyrood 2026 is different. The Scottish Labour leader will not become First Minister by trying to edge his way into Bute House.
Previous Scottish Labour manifestos have been dismal affairs, marked by weasel words and promises of new talking shops. Sarwar has an opportunity at his conference to put forward a policy agenda that breaks from the status quo, shows where he stands on key issues and demonstrates whose side he is on.
This means putting more money into people’s pockets through cutting income tax and having a credible plan to fix public services. Promising to scrap peak rail fares is a decent opener.
He also has to be ruthless on personnel. Scottish Labour has 37 MPs and 22 MSPs but the quality is higher at Westminster than in Edinburgh. The Labour group at Holyrood carries more passengers than a flight from Glasgow to Majorca in July.
Most party conferences pass without voters noticing, but this one has to be different for Scottish Labour.
Two future scenarios await the Glasgow MSP: he will either be addressed as ‘First Minister’ or ‘Lord Sarwar’. Voters want bold change and the time for cautious leadership is over.
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