Shona Robison and Fiona Hyslop standing down at the next election shows there is a stampede to leave the SNP group. Over a dozen MSPs have announced they are quitting and the leavers’ list will only grow. All eyes are on Nicola Sturgeon whose exit from Holyrood is a certainty.
Many of the MSPs who are seeking fresh challenges are allies of the former First Minister and their departures feel like the end of an era.
The loss of so many colleagues should also be a worry for John Swinney as he plots his party’s bid to hold on to power.
If the SNP is elected for a fifth term, losing experienced colleagues will harm his ability to form an effective Government. It is also hardly a vote of confidence in Swinney or the SNP’s chances next year that so many have decided to resign.
Swinney’s original plan was to quit in 2026, but the disastrous reign of Humza Yousaf forced him to ditch his retirement plan. He has now talked himself into standing at the 2031 election and serving at Holyrood until he is in his seventies. This will not happen and the battle is on for who will replace Swinney.
If he wins the election, expect Swinney to serve for half a term before he quietly makes way for a successor. If he loses to Anas Sarwar, he will be gone within weeks of his defeat.
Swinney’s allies want Net Zero Cabinet Secretary Màiri McAllan to take over whenever the day comes. SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn is also ambitious and would go for the leadership if he can make the switch to Holyrood. Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes and Education Secretary Jenny Gilruth would also be serious contenders.
The SNP is changing and the days of Sturgeon and Alex Salmond are over.
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