There have been six targeted trades into the top three picks of an NFL Draft for quarterbacks in the past 10 years:
The Rams and Eagles for Jared Goff and Carson Wentz at Nos. 1 and 2 in 2016. The Bears for Mitchell Trubisky at No. 2 overall in 2017.
The Jets for Sam Darnold at No. 3 in 2018. The 49ers for Trey Lance at No. 3 in 2021. And the Panthers for Bryce Young at No. 1 in 2023.
It’s seven trades when counting the Bears’ fortunate flip of their No. 1 overall 2023 selection to Carolina in return, eventually, for Caleb Williams at No. 1 in 2024 and a whole lot more.
And it would have been eight trades if the New England Patriots had accepted the Giants’ offer to charge up from No. 6 to No. 3 for Drake Maye last spring: Joe Schoen included picks No. 6 and No. 47 and the Giants’ 2025 first-rounder in his final offer, and the Pats still didn’t take it.
On top of that, three of the first four picks have been quarterbacks in three of the last four NFL Drafts:
The Jaguars took Trevor Lawrence No. 1 overall in 2021, followed by the Jets picking Zach Wilson No. 2 and the Niners selecting Lance at No. 3.
The Panthers got Young at No. 1 in 2023, before the Houston Texans picked C.J. Stroud at No. 2 and the Indianapolis Colts took Anthony Richardson at No. 4.
And then the Bears picked Williams No. 1 overall in 2024, ahead of the Washington Commanders’ selection of Jayden Daniels at No. 2 and the Patriots’ Maye pick at No. 3.
Now the Giants hold the No.3 overall pick and need to draft a quarterback somewhere in the early rounds, even after they sign a veteran.
But the Tennessee Titans at No. 1, the Cleveland Browns at No. 2, the Las Vegas Raiders at No. 6 and the Jets at No. 7 all need quarterbacks, too.
So the Giants might make a big trade up to No. 1 to ensure they will land their preferred QB, especially after striking out on their aggressive pursuit of a Matthew Stafford trade.
How much would Joe Schoen have to pay the Titans to move up to No. 1? History provides a guide:
BEARS-PANTHERS, 2023
The Panthers charged all the way up from pick No. 9 two years ago to acquire Chicago’s No. 1 pick and take Young out of Alabama.
The price was steep: they gave up that No.9 overall first-round pick, their 2024 first-round pick (the next year’s eventual No. 1 pick), wide receiver DJ Moore, a 2023 second-rounder (No. 61 overall) and a 2025 second (No. 39).
Carolina’s No. 9 overall pick eventually became the Eagles’ defensive tackle Jalen Carter after the Bears traded back one spot to No. 10.
The Giants would not have to give up anything close to this price because they’d only be coming from No. 3 overall. The Jets’ price would have to be somewhat comparable since they are so far down the board.
The Giants’ pick should be attractive to Tennessee in a trade back because the Titans wouldn’t be trading out of their top cluster of players by moving to No. 3.
The Titans might still be able to draft the top position player on their entire board, in fact, on top of acquiring picks from the Giants, if Cleveland went QB at No. 2, as well.
The inclusion of Moore in that 2023 Bears-Panthers trade is important to keep in mind if the Giants make a move: the Titans need assets and players. If the Giants are trying to get rid of a salary and player, including him in a move up isn’t out of the question.
49ERS-DOLPHINS 2021
San Fran made a major move up from No. 12 to the Dolphins’ No. 3 pick for Lance out of North Dakota State. It cost them their 2022 and 2023 first-round picks (Nos. 29 overall both years) and a 2022 third.
This is a cautionary tale, since Lance was a bust. But the Niners also kept swinging and fortunately found Brock Purdy in the 2022 seventh-round to take the reins.
So it doesn’t mean a team shouldn’t pursue quarterbacks. It just reinforces there is a major risk lurking behind the tantalizing possible reward.
JETS-COLTS 2018
The Jets gave up three second-round picks to move up from No. 6 to No. 3 with the Colts and draft Darnold out of USC: Nos. 37 and 49 overall that year and No. 34 in 2019.
This trade is a reminder that a team doesn’t have to part with an extra first-rounder to move up. However, it is another example of why second-round picks are extremely valuable and difficult to give up.
The Jets’ picks in that trade turned into Colts guard Quenton Nelson, Colts tackle Braden Smith, Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert and corner Rock Ya-Sin.
BEARS-49ERS 2017
The Trubisky trade provides more context on what it might cost the Giants here in 2025 to go to No. 1 overall.
Back in 2017, Chicago moved up only one spot from No. 3 to No. 2 with the 49ers to take the UNC quarterback. And the Bears gave San Francisco a 2017 third round pick, 2017 fourth round pick and a 2018 third rounder — on top of the first-round pick swap — to make the move.
The Giants’ trade up would be more expensive than this because they’d be moving up two picks, not one. And because they’d be acquiring the No. 1 overall selection, which comes with a premium.
But it’s easy to see how they could inch toward a deal by turning one of these future seconds or thirds into a future first, dropping one of the mid-rounders and adding a veteran into the trade, for example.
RAMS-TITANS 2016
The Rams shot up all the way from No. 15 to No. 1 to take Goff with Tennessee’s original No. 1 pick. They gave up the house for it, too: a 2017 first, two 2016 second-round picks and third-round picks in both 2016 and 2017.
One of those second-round pick eventually became stud Titans/Ravens running back Derrick Henry. But that’s not discussed often because Goff — their prized QB — helped lead the Rams to a Super Bowl appearance.
That’s why it is worth it to take swings at the position. L.A. also got a 2016 fourth and 2016 sixth out of the trade.
EAGLES-BROWNS 2016
Philly’s trade up from No. 8 to No. 2 for Carson Wentz sent a package back to Cleveland that included a 2017 first-rounder, a 2018 second-rounder and 2016 third- and fourth-round picks. The Browns gave up their prime real estate and a 2017 fourth in return.
Wentz didn’t become the Eagles’ long-term franchise QB. But he did play at an MVP level in 2017 before getting hurt and giving way to Nick Foles for the organization’s first Super Bowl run. So again, this is why teams pay these high prices: the potential payoff.
In fact, both the Rams and Eagles reached or won a Super Bowl with Goff or Wentz as a key part of their special season. Los Angeles also eventually used Goff in a trade for Matthew Stafford to eventually capture a Lombardi Trophy of their own.