AUSTIN, Texas — While we originally set a Weather Impact Alert Day for just Friday due to elevated fire weather concerns, we are now extending that alert through Saturday.
Here’s a day-by-day breakdown of the fire weather concerns over the next couple of days.
Friday, March 14
Friday looks to have the more serious fire weather concerns in terms of the Austin metro area. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for areas along and west of Interstate 35 from noon to 9 p.m., and we have a hunch that this will be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning.
This is largely due to warm temperatures, with highs in the upper 80s, as well as strong winds that could gust up to 30 mph for the Hill Country and 25-30 mph for the Austin metro and I-35 corridor.
With those strong winds, coupled with dry soil and warm temperatures, the Texas A&M Forest Service has highlighted areas along I-35, including the Austin metro, in the “extreme” fire danger category – the highest of them all.
Saturday, March 15
While no fire alerts have been issued for Saturday as of yet, that is likely to change within the 24 hours from Thursday morning. This is because we’re tracking even gustier winds in the Austin metro and Hill Country for Saturday afternoon. These gusts could get up to 35 mph in the Austin metro and 40-45 mph in the Coastal Plains.
For what it’s worth, the criteria for a Severe Thunderstorm Warning is 58 mph, so we will not be very far off from that.
While we do expect to be cooler Saturday afternoon as a dry frontal system passes through on Friday, the gustier winds and dry soil will result in extreme fire danger persisting for the Hill Country into Saturday, as well as northern Williamson County and San Marcos.
The Austin metro does take a step down from “extreme” to “very high” for Saturday. However, this does not mean that the fire threat shouldn’t be taken seriously in the Austin metro for Saturday.
The latest drought conditions
Our latest drought monitor is out, and dry soils are a key factor in fire weather concerns. The soils are so dry in the Hill Country because many of those areas were involved in the flash drought from this past fall that still is causing issues in that part of the region.
The latest drought monitor update shows “exceptional” drought in sections of Gillespie and Blanco counties, marking the first time that designation has been recorded in the KVUE area since Oct. 24, 2023.
The bottom line
We’re tracking an extreme fire weather concern for Friday and Saturday. Soils will be dry, winds will be strong and temperatures will be warm for Friday.
It is super important to not burn anything outside at all on Friday and Saturday and to go over your fire plan in case you are told to evacuate.
Stick with the KVUE Weather Impact Team for all the latest on this.
Your seven-day outlook is below.
