The UK weather has been totally unpredictable since the turn of the new year. Red weather warnings, travel chaos, flooding, and heavy snow and rainfall have battered Scotland for pretty much three months straight.
As the first day of spring looms, we are, quite literally, looking to brighter days. However, a ground-breaking new study from the Met Office has revealed “never before seen” wind changes may spell even greater trouble for the UK.
In fact, Britain may experience two “severe” weather events due to massive changes to the North Atlantic winds.
It comes as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) could reach unprecedented magnitudes by the end of the century, the agency warned, leading to severe impacts such as increased flooding and storm damage in northern Europe.
Dr Doug Smith, lead author of the study, cautioned: “These findings have major implications for understanding and preparing for extreme weather events. Our study suggests that taking model projections at face value could leave society unprepared for impending extremes.”
If you’re wondering what a NAO is – and you might well be – it is a large-scale atmospheric pressure see-saw in the North Atlantic and is a key driver of winter weather patterns in the UK, western Europe and eastern US.
It is measured by the gradient between high pressure over the Azores and low pressure over Iceland and controls the strength of the prevailing winds.
The study, led by a team of Met Office climate scientists, pinpoints climatological water vapour as a huge factor in the long-term fluctuations of the NAO.
The research shows that limitations in the way that current climate models depict water vapour in the atmosphere leads to uncertainty in predictions of the NAO’s future behaviour.
Taking account of these limitations reveals a substantial response of the NAO to volcanic eruptions and greenhouse gases.
Alarmingly, under a scenario with very high concentrations of greenhouse gases by the end of the century, the NAO will increase to levels never before seen, the findings reveal.
This will pose severe risks of impacts from extreme weather such as storms and floods ravaging homes and businesses. Such events are similar to what we seen during Storm Éowyn, the powerful and record-breaking super storm that hit the UK and Ireland in late January, causing widespread devastation and, tragically, fatalities.
So, how do we prevent such ferocious weather from taking hold? The answer could lie in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Dr Smith asserted: “Mitigation efforts are crucial to prevent the severe impacts associated with an unprecedented increase in the NAO.”
Meanwhile, carbonising Scotland’s homes and buildings – considered a key part of reducing greenhouse gas emissions – could cost £130billion, a top expert has warned.
Last year’s report by the Just Transition Commission (JTC) said the Scottish Government will need to dedicate nearly a fifth of its capital budget to green plans – around £1.1billion a year – to meet the aim of going net zero by 2045.