ODESSA, Texas — As President Donald Trump enters the first 100 days of his second term, he is once again making his stance on the oil and gas industry clear: “Drill, baby, drill.” But while the phrase may energize some, many West Texas oil producers are taking a more cautious approach.
Oil production in the Permian Basin is more than just an industry—it’s a way of life. However, recent market conditions and policy changes have many questioning whether an aggressive push to increase drilling is truly viable.
“The drilling rig count is flat, which means there won’t be much more growth going on from people drilling wells,” said Kirk Edwards, president of Latigo Petroleum.
Trump’s vocal support for domestic drilling has been met with mixed reactions. While many in the industry appreciate having an advocate in the White House, some remain wary of the economic and policy hurdles they continue to face.
“When you first started saying ‘drill, baby, drill,’ you’re pretty excited about it because we were coming off another administration that said ‘kill, baby, kill.’ I mean, they wanted to stop everything about oil and gas, so it’s nice to have a cheerleader for the oil and gas industry as president,” said Edwards.
Yet, despite the enthusiasm, industry experts are quick to point out key challenges—most notably, steel tariffs that could drive up well costs and an oil price plateau that limits profitability.
“Right now, we may be in the $65 range. Hopefully, it won’t go lower than that. The sweet spot is around $70 to $75 per barrel, which keeps gasoline prices at about $2.60 nationwide,” Edwards said. “There’s a lot of uncertainty right now this year, but over a 10-year period, we hope oil prices stabilize around $70. If you’re drilling today, that’s the number you’re watching.”
For now, the decision to drill—or not—rests with the producers themselves.
“Discipline is the keyword right now, especially in the Permian. People are not going to be putting out a bunch of drilling rigs. I cannot see that happening in the Permian or anywhere in the United States,” said Edwards.
While some producers are skeptical that a full-scale drilling boom is on the horizon, others are more focused on regulatory challenges. Permitting reforms, environmental restrictions and federal policies all continue to influence the industry’s direction.
“Helping us is as hard as getting permitting reform done, getting the endangered species crazies off of us that are out there trying to make drilling locations obsolete here in the Permian,” Edwards said. “But on the other side, the tariffs are bad for drilling. Him kind of encouraging OPEC to put more oil in the market—that’s bad. But filling up the Strategic Petroleum Reserve with oil is good.”
Despite Trump’s push, uncertainty remains the industry’s biggest concern.
“Nobody in the Permian is saying lower oil prices will be great,” Edwards said. “If we could keep it up at $70, that would be good. Everybody’s very cautiously optimistic. They love Trump being in office, but they don’t love him going out and saying flood the market with oil because that will drive the price down. It’ll put everybody out of work that’s out here right now.”
As producers weigh the risks and rewards of expanding operations, the industry remains in a holding pattern—optimistic about a supportive administration, but wary of economic forces beyond their control.