In announcing that he will forgo party lines to run for reelection as an independent, Mayor Adams embarks on uncharted territory that political observers tell the Daily News all but kills his hope of winning a second term at City Hall.
There’s no precedent for what Adams is hoping to do: In modern times, no candidate has ever been elected New York City mayor solely on an independent line.
On top of that, Adams has sagging poll numbers, low fundraising dollars and the appearance of a corrupt bargain with President Trump.
Plus, his hungry challengers, including ex-Gov. Andrew Cuomo, democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani and even GOP candidate Curtis Sliwa, all pose a threat.
And his move on Thursday to drop out of June’s Democratic primary and announce an independent bid for November’s general election only stands to narrow his difficult road to reelection, according to political observers.
Howard Wolfson, a longtime adviser to Mayor Michael Bloomberg who worked in his administration and on his campaigns, all but declared Adams’ independent candidacy dead in the water.
“I didn’t think he had a path to reelection before and I don’t think he has a path to reelection now,” he said.
Bloomberg, who was first elected as a Republican but left to run on the line of the now-defunct Independence Party, narrowly won his second term in 2009. However, Bloomberg maintained the Republican ballot line in that election, in which he beat Democratic candidate Bill Thompson by just over 4%.
“Even Mike, who had high popularity, would have had a very, very hard time in that election had he not also had the Republican line,” Wolfson said. “For Eric Adams, even if his poll numbers were good you would say the odds are stacked against him because it’s really hard to be elected without a major party line. Then you throw in that his poll and approval numbers are awful, it just seems close to impossible.”
Adams’ approval ratings dropped to a historic low of 20% last month, after Trump’s Department of Justice moved to dismiss his federal corruption case, arguing that the case prevented him from helping execute Trump’s immigration agenda in New York City.
The mayor has denied accusations that he entered into a corrupt agreement with Trump in order to get the case lifted, but the judge in his case wrote that the actions of Adams and the DOJ had the stink of a “disturbing” deal.
“Everything here smacks of a bargain: dismissal of the Indictment in exchange for immigration policy concessions,” Ho wrote in his 78-page ruling.
Adams has said that with the goalposts shifted to November, he hopes to pull together a stronger campaign. Part of the challenge ahead of him will be convincing voters that he’ll put the interests of New Yorkers ahead of his own or Trump’s.
Norman Siegel, a civil rights lawyer who has considered Mayor Adams a close personal friend for decades, said Adams “didn’t have a chance” in the Democratic primary, but he didn’t want to count him out for the general election just yet, especially given waning party loyalty and the often bizarre political moment for the city and country.
“It’s still swimming upstream, but I don’t think it’s impossible given the times we’re in,” said Siegel, who has soured on the mayor amid his budding relationship with Trump.
Siegel volunteered on John Lindsay’s first mayoral campaign in 1965. In 1969, Lindsay won reelection as a third-party candidate after losing the Republican primary.
“John Lindsay created hope, and inspired many of us with leadership that was idealistic,” Siegel said. “That was a period of time that you needed that sort of strong, principled person in charge. Today is a much different day and I’m not sure any of the current candidates for mayor are able to do something like that.”
Mayor Eric Adams appears at a press conference at One Police Plaza on Thursday, April 3, 2025 in Manhattan, New York. (Barry Williams/ New York Daily News)
Jackie Rowe-Adams, an anti-gun violence activist and Adams supporter, argued the mayor may get reelected no matter his party affiliation.
“He knows what he’s doing, I feel that he’s going to win whatever party he runs on, and you know why he’s going to win? Because he did a lot for this city and everything he has done, the media tried to take him down,” she said in an interview on the sidelines of the National Action Network conference in Manhattan last week.
“Nobody could have stood up like the mayor stood up, they would have been in a hospital with a heart attack and everything else. You know why? Because he’s taking care of the city.”
Though extremely skeptical of Adams’ prospects, Wolfson said it’d be momentous if he pulls off a victory in November.
“It would be the single greatest comeback in the history of American politics,” he said.