Scottish Labour are braced for a series of mini-referendums over the next few weeks on the winter fuel payment cuts. A number of their newly-elected MPs were councillors and their resignations have triggered local by-elections.
The Dundee debacle, where Labour lost two races they were hoping to win, could be repeated across the country.
Many political issues that preoccupy Westminster and Holyrood do not cut through with the public. But the cuts to the WFP – where up to 900,000 older Scots could lose out – are hammering Labour on the doorsteps.
MSPs and MPs are feeling the anger in their inboxes, during surgeries and on the streets. The scandal of Keir Starmer and his team accepting free clothes and other goodies is aggravating voters who were already furious.
The main political loser is not the Prime Minister, but Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar, who was left blindsided by the WFP cut and is powerless to soften the policy. He hoped the run up to the 2026 Holyrood election would be marked by a rolling series of positive announcements that showed the difference a Labour Government can make.
Starmer has ignored this memo and is using his early days in office to maintain a misery narrative millions of Scots want to see ditched. His “things will get worse” schtick in the Number 10 rose garden heralded the nadir in relations between him and Sarwar.
It is now obvious Scottish and UK Labour are out of sync. Sarwar, impatient for delivery, is keen for an outpouring of good news to help his election chances while Downing Street is intent on front-loading the pain.
Labour MSPs are also frustrated with the new 37 MPs over their failure to raise their voice over the botched WFP decision. Some MPs have even responded by referring concerns to MSPs, a move that puts further pressure on Sarwar and his Holyrood colleagues.
One party source said of Scottish Labour MPs: “They need to know their lane and stay in their lane.”
Sarwar had hoped to dust down the “change” message for the 2026 campaign. But the slogan will be taken as an insult by the low income pensioners who are losing money at a time of rising fuel bills.
Starmer was once seen as an asset for Sarwar in his quest to become the next First Minister. The Prime Minister’s halo has slipped and Scottish Labour should be preparing for a tight and bitter election.
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