Some 6,000 manufacturing jobs will be put at risk if the transition from gas boilers to heat pumps doesn’t speed up, a think tank has warned. But research by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) also found Scotland could thrive as a heat pump manufacturing hotspot with the right industrial strategy.
It comes after record installations of the eco-friendly alternative to boilers in Scotland this year. However, despite being Europe’s leading manufacturer of gas boilers, the UK lags behind its European counterparts on building heat pumps.
And the IPPR warned without a proper strategy to manage the phase-out of boilers in favour of heat pumps, up to 6000 manufacturing jobs across the UK could be threatened, including hundreds of posts in Scotland.
On the other hand, a “just transition” to heat pump manufacturing would reap huge economic rewards for UK workers, the IPPR said. Home heating is Scotland’s fourth biggest source of carbon – and revolutionising how we heat our homes to be greener is a key plank of the national net zero mission.
Heat pumps are more energy-efficient than gas boilers, can lower energy bills, and enhance energy security by reducing reliance on volatile gas markets in favour of clean power. The IPPR insisted seizing the “huge potential” of heat pumps could transform the economy, particularly in areas like Scotland, north-east England and the Midlands.
Gas boilers are already banned from being installed in new-build homes in Scotland, with a wider phase-out set to begin from 2028. Simone Gasperin of the IPPR said: “The UK stands out in Europe for its large gas boiler market and its related manufacturing base.
“However, with gas boilers being phased out to meet net zero targets, this dominance is nearing its end. Despite this, the potential of an untapped market for heat pumps, combined with existing capabilities in heating and cooling manufacturing, places the UK in a strategic position to achieve a just transition.
“This shift could drive economic growth, protect skilled jobs, and achieve climate goals – but only with a coherent industrial strategy that aligns demand pulls with targeted business support measures.”
The think tank’s report warned of the UK: “The country needs to install at least five million heat pumps over the course of the next Parliament, and at least 19 million by 2050. But the UK is still disproportionately installing more boilers than heat pumps – for every heat pump sold in the UK, 29 gas boilers are being sold.”
In its recommendations, the research group urges the Labour government to launch a new strategy to turbocharge the heat pump transition, including more generous subsidy schemes and low-cost financing to reduce installation costs. It also says measures like lower energy tariffs for heat pump users and funding to support the transition of boiler manufacturers into producing heat pumps on a large scale should be considered.
As boiler and heat pump manufacturing share common skills and equipment, boiler manufacturers can diversify into heat pump production relatively easily and with low capital investment, the IPPR adds.
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