A new poll shows Kamala Harris romping to a 19% landslide win over former President Trump in New York, a result that would refute suggestions of a rightward drift in the nation’s second-biggest blue state.
The Democratic nominee scores a 58%-to-39% lead over Trump in the Empire State, a Siena College survey released Tuesday shows, a margin that is close to the 23% win President Biden notched in 2020.
“Harris has widened her lead over Trump in New York, leading by 19 points in a head-to-head matchup,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said, noting the margin increased by 6% in the past month as the election enters the home stretch.
The poll also had bad news for some Republicans further down the ballot on Long Island.
Rep. Anthony D’Esposito trails Democratic challenger Laura Gillen by 12% in the NY-04 district on the South Shore, a result that would mirror Biden’s 14% win in the solidly blue district.
Further out on the island, GOP Rep. Nick LaLota leads ex-CNN anchor John Avlon by a narrow 3% in the NY-01 district in Suffolk County, the poll says. LaLota won the seat by 11% in the 2022 election.
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand also holds a gaping 26% lead over little-known Republican Mike Sapraicone in a virtual walkover that few voters seem to know is even taking place.
Kamala Harris arrives in Wisconsin for a campaign event on Monday. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)
Harris is forging what now looks like an unassailable lead over Trump in New York by bringing home the disparate elements of the Democratic base, including women, younger voters and racial minorities.
The vice president, who is running to become the first woman president, now holds a 71%-25% lead over Trump among New York women and has improved her standing among Black and Latinos in the closing days of the race.
Her lead among Black voters stands at 90%-3%, suggesting that Trump’s heavily hyped appeals to Blacks is falling flat in New York.
“The increase in Harris’ lead comes from Black, white and Latino voters, as well as younger and middle-aged voters,” Greenberg said.
Harris leads by a potent 69%-21% margin in New York City, while holding a slimmer 47%-45% lead upstate. The New York City suburbs look like a relative bright spot for Trump with him trailing Harris by just 3%.
Although Trump brags about putting New York in play and is holding a rally at Madison Square Garden on Sunday, strategists on both sides of the aisle have long penciled in a win for Harris in the Empire State.
Democrats are hoping to flip as many as five Republican-held seats in the NYC metro area, which could be enough for them to retake control of the House of Representatives.
The GOP flipped several blue-leaning seats in the New York suburbs in the 2022 midterms, a victory that helped power their narrow eight-vote edge in the House.
But many analysts have predicted that Harris will not rack up the same margins that President Biden or Hillary Clinton did in deep-blue strongholds like New York, California, Massachusetts and Illinois due to slippage in support in heavily Democratic cities.