A point in Bergamo has Celtic fans dreaming of more Champions League glory nights – and they are being touted to reach the play-off round as a minimum after the Atalanta stalemate.
Brendan Rodgers‘ side recovered from the demolition at the hands of Borussia Dortmund to claim a vital point against the Europa League winners – taking their tally to four after the Scottish champions smashed Slovan Bratislava on the opening day of the league phase campaign. It’s back-to-back home games up next for the Hoops as they face RB Leipzig and Club Brugge in Glasgow’s east end before clashes with Dinamo Zagreb, Young Boys and Aston Villa.
Now the Opta supercomputer has stated that Celtic finishing the campaign with 11 points is the most likely scenario – with a 17.6 per chance of that being the final tally. And after a project that saw the boffins run a whopping 50,000 simulations it is stated that the Premiership leaders are most likely to finish in 22nd spot with a probability of 6.2 per cent.
That would be enough to ensure a spot in the playoff rounds of the competition for Callum McGregor and Co. Teams ranked in the top eight of the league stage will qualify automatically for the round of 16 as seeded teams, while teams finishing between the 9th and 24th place will enter the playoff phase. Those sides will face off to determine the eight teams that will take part in the round of 16 draw as unseeded teams.
Should Celtic emerge from the league phase, it would spell a bumper payday for the club with UEFA divvying up a whopping £733m prize pot to their elite clubs. Celtic are handed £15.7m just for reaching the group phase with each win in the league phase banking £1.9m per win and £600k is handed out for a draw. Based on the supercomputer’s estimates another two wins and a draw should be attainable to secure a £6.9m payday in total.
The club will also land a performance related payment based on the final overall standings. The initial value of each share will be £236K with the lowest ranked team netting one share but increases each position you rise through the 36-team table (£236K x 36 means the top team would earn £8.4m). With Celtic predicted to finish in 22nd they would claim a £3.3m bonus.
Clubs who reach the playoff phase are also handed around £1m for reaching the playoff phase. Should they progress they further and reach the last 16 and £9.2m payout awaits.
The Champions League revamp this season has also seen two additional changes to the payment structure with two new pillars used to distribute the rest of the wealth. The first one takes in the media market of the respective leagues and a modified five-year coefficient and is worth £540m– 75 per cent of the total share. The second is the non-European element – which factors in the old 10-year coefficient at a cost of £179m – which is the other 25 per cent of the distribution. Even if Celtic land in the bottom third in the European pillar and the non-European element they would still land a cool £6m.