With polls predicting a photo finish between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump on Election Day, Democrats and Republicans alike have been going on the offensive over bombshell comments they believe could help them open up an edge as the last undecided voters make up their minds.
But were any of the remarks enough to be an “October surprise” — and if so, will it make any difference?
The Harris campaign pounced this past week when Trump underlined his problems with female voters by saying he would be their “protector,” then added “whether the women like it or not.”
Last weekend, a comedian at Trump’s much-hyped Madison Square Garden rally infuriated Puerto Ricans by calling their homeland a “floating island of garbage,” an insult that the former president refuses to apologize for.
Trump’s campaign says the biggest bombshell was President Biden’s comment that seemed to brand Trump’s army of loyal supporters as “garbage,” which could spur them to vote in greater numbers.
But many pundits doubt if any of the last week drama will make a difference, especially in a race that polls say has been extremely stable for several weeks.
Nearly all voters have made up their minds and about half have already voted early, and analysts say it’s almost impossible to figure out what may move the handful of remaining voters to side with either Trump or Harris — or just stay home.
“I’m skeptical any of the things … will have all that much effect on the outcome,” said Jacob Rubashkin, an analyst with the non-partisan Inside Elections. “In the end I think the race is going to hinge on big issues: Which candidate voters trust on immigration, taxes, abortion, democracy [and] who they think is fit for and capable of the job.”
Here’s where the presidential race stands after a week of near-daily controversies, and whether any of them might move the needle before the nation goes to the polls Tuesday.
‘Floating island of garbage’ enrages Puerto Ricans
Trump drew a sprawling crowd of more than 20,000 supporters to Madison Square Garden last weekend in what he framed as a triumphant campaign closing argument set in the heart of deep-blue New York.
A parade of speakers attacked Harris, along with Blacks, Latinos and women. One speaker, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe, grabbed the most attention when he trashed Puerto Rico as “a floating island of garbage.”
Angry reaction was swift from Puerto Ricans and Latinos in general, groups that Trump needs in key swing states, especially Pennsylvania, where about 4% of voters are Latino.
“Trump’s MSG rally may be this cycle’s October surprise for the immediate, widespread backlash to its content and potential impact on a very important block of voters,” said Basil Smikle, a Columbia professor and Democratic strategist.
“Puerto Ricans really matter in the most important swing state this year, Pennsylvania — and plenty of other states,” added Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political analyst.
Did Biden insult Trump supporters?
President Biden was denouncing the joke about Puerto Rico when he delivered his own controversial comment.
“The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporter’s … his demonization of Latinos is unconscionable,” Biden said, according to an official transcript that was changed after an original version read “supporters” without an apostrophe.
Biden says he was talking about the comedian. But Trump campaign said he was putting down tens of millions of MAGA supporters.
They compared it to Hillary Clinton’s infamous “basket of deplorables” remark, which some pundits credit with shifting the 2016 race to Trump, and even staged a campaign event with him in the cab of a garbage truck to rile up his base.
The tactic underlined Trump’s durable appeal to white male working class voters, the base of support that has given a fighting chance at winning four more years in the White House.
Trump: I’ll protect women ‘like it or not’
One of the most notable factors in the 2024 election has been the historically outsized “gender gap,” with women backing Harris and men disproportionately supporting Trump.
So Trump fans groaned when the former president told a rally that he would aim to be a “protector of women.” Then he went even further, saying “whether the women like it or not.”
Many women found the remark tone deaf or downright creepy especially when combined with Trump’s opposition to abortion rights, a key issue driving women to vote Democratic.
Harris herself denounced them on the stump, and pundits noted women are expected to make up the majority of voters and so far have out-voted men by more than 10% in early voting.
“Women are going to be the deciders of this election,” said Errin Haines, an editor with The 19th, a news site that focuses on gender issues.
Why no October surprise may really change the race
You don’t need to be a math expert to understand why few potential October surprises really matter in the end.
Most voters have long since decided where they stand by this time in the campaign. That’s particularly true of Trump, who has been at the center of the national political debate for nearly a decade and three straight presidential campaigns.
There are also far more people casting their ballots earlier than ever before, making it that much harder to shift large blocs of voters at the last minute compared to past elections, when the vast majority of the nation voted in person on Election Day.
More than 65 million votes had been cast, or nearly half of the total expected turnout, as of Friday, with millions more voting over the weekend. Polls say less than 5% of voters are still undecided, with a big chunk of those likely to stay home.
“There have been October surprises that have not changed the race’s outcome,” Sabato said. “It is rather that voters see a dramatic event or circumstance that catches the electorate’s attention at a time when people are politically aware.”
Republican strategist Matt Mackowiak said he believes Trump has already the political wind at his back and none of the 11th hour gaffes will change anything.
“This race has moved in Trump’s direction for a month now,” he said. “He has real momentum across the board.”
A dead heat heading into Election Day
Polls have suggested the presidential contest is a virtual dead heat in the final hours before Tuesday’s vote.
In fact, the race has hardly changed in about two months.
Trump had led what looked like a rematch against Biden by a fairly significant margin into the summer months.
All that changed when Biden delivered a disastrous performance in a June debate, a debacle that led to the Democratic incumbent pulling out of the race and handing the baton to Harris.
Harris, who is running to make history as the first Black woman president, immediately lined up near-unanimous support of Democratic leaders and raised hundreds of millions of dollars from a newly energized base.
She forged a modest lead in polls and was crowned the winner of the only debate between them. But Harris’ momentum stalled and Trump clawed hs way back, setting up a photo finish on Nov. 5.
Pollsters warn that just because polling averages are tied does not guarantee that the election will actually turn out to be super close.
The average polling error of 3% in recent presidential elections suggests the election could end with a big win for one candidate — or the other.
The pollsters tinkered their models after underestimating Trump’s electoral support in 2016, when he upset Clinton and again in 2020, when Biden won by a much smaller margin than many polls predicted.
In 2022, many surveys predicted a Republican red wave. But Democrats held their own, leading to another round of soul searching.
Who’s on track to win 270 electoral votes
Democratic candidates have won the national popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections, and few expect Trump to end that streak in 2024.
But Trump and Harris are competing for 270 electoral votes this year, and both have realistic paths to get there.
The electoral map focuses on seven battleground states, including three in the Rust Belt and four in the Sun Belt, six of which were won by Biden in his victory over Trump.
If Harris can win the so-called Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, she will be the next president. Polling averages give her narrow leads in all three although the race is virtually tied in Pennsylvania, the most crucial swing state with 19 electoral votes.
That’s why she is spending most of the final weekend in the Rust Belt.
She could also get to 270 even if she loses one or more of the states in the industrial Midwest, by holding some combination of the states in the Sun Belt including North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.
For Trump, the path is a bit narrower. He could hope to flip all four southern battlegrounds, where he appears to hold very narrow polling leads and also pick off at least one of the blue wall states.
Any losses in the Sun Belt would make Trump’s job much trickier. That’s why it’s not a great sign for him that he plans multiple rallies in the final days in North Carolina, a state he narrowly won in 2020 and might have hoped to have already wrapped up.