DALLAS — After analyzing the early voting numbers, political researchers say there was a clear winner in Texas: Republicans, with a turnout significantly higher than Democrats.
And Republican strategist Matt Mackowiak says that turnout is part of the reason Ted Cruz is showing signs of pulling away from Colin Allred.
“I think they are, obviously, running like they’re behind. But I think internally, they’d much rather be their side than Allred’s side,” the strategist told us on Inside Texas Politics.
Mackowiak is both the chair of the Travis County Republican Party but also the President of Potomac Strategy Group, which provides political consulting to conservative campaigns.
He thinks Cruz will win by four or five points when it’s all said and done.
And here in Texas, Mackowiak says former President Donald Trump’s momentum at the top of the ticket will help Cruz as well.
“I think if Trump were in the six to eight percent range in Texas with that kind of statewide margin, which is worst case where I think he will be, I think there’s really, probably, almost no scenario where Cruz could lose,” Mackowiak said. “If Trump were to win Texas by three or four, it could be very, very close. But again, I don’t expect that.”
When looking at the race for President nationally, Mackowiak says polling in the seven battleground states is moving in Trump’s direction.
And he says Trump has more pathways to victory, even if he loses the all-important state of Pennsylvania.
But he does see a scenario where Vice President Kamala Harris could make a stand.
“If she could hold Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, it makes it very hard for Trump. He has to basically run the table everywhere else. I think Trump is going to win some of those blue wall states,” argued Mackowiak.
Either way, he says the race is extraordinarily close.
So everyone might just need a little patience.
“We may not know on election night,” he said. “We may not even know for several days.”
Polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on election day, Tuesday, November 5.