Smoking is set to cause almost 30,000 cancer cases in Scotland in the next five years if present trends persist, new analysis by Cancer Research UK suggests. The study anticipates cancers caused by smoking by the end of the parliamentary term, projected between July 2024 and July 2029.
It warns there could be a total of 296,661 cases throughout the UK if these trends do not change. In England, 243,045 cases are estimated, with Scotland following at 29,365, Wales with 15,161, and Northern Ireland at 9,090.
Additionally, the analysis suggests that second-hand smoke exposure might result in about 2,846 cancer cases among non-smokers across the UK. Urging MPs to take decisive action, the charity advocates for support of the Tobacco and Vapes Bill ahead of its second reading in the House of Commons on Tuesday.
The Scottish Government has already endorsed the bill, which now requires the backing of MSPs at Holyrood to have full effect in Scotland. A pivotal aspect of the Bill is prohibiting tobacco sales to individuals born on or after January 1, 2009, meaning children turning 15 this year would never legally be sold cigarettes.
The Bill also seeks to implement a licensing scheme for tobacco and vapes as well as to extend smoke-free areas. Cancer Research highlighted that the Bill could exert a “profound impact” on Scotland, where tobacco remains the principal cause of cancer.
The charity has hailed the Bill as a landmark chance to prevent cancer, reduce strain on stretched health services and set the UK on course for a smoke-free future. Dr Ian Walker, Cancer Research’s policy executive director, stated: “Tobacco kills up to two-thirds of its users. The magnitude of damage caused by smoking cannot be ignored and these statistics expose the lives that are at stake.
“We know that smoking rates decline with government intervention. Raising the age of sale of tobacco products and funding cessation services will help to protect people from a lifetime of deadly and costly addiction. The Tobacco and Vapes Bill could be one of the most impactful public health interventions in my lifetime. People’s lives are now in the hands of politicians and I urge all MPs to vote for a future free from the harms of tobacco.”
The notion to hike the tobacco age limit was initially mooted by the previous Tory government led by Rishi Sunak and is being upheld by Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer.
Sheila Duffy, chief executive at Action on Smoking and Health Scotland, commented: “Cancer Research UK’s estimates about the number of lives being lost to smoking-related cancers demonstrates why MPs representing constituents across the country must support the Tobacco and Vapes Bill’s strong measures to continue driving down use of tobacco – the biggest preventable killer in Scotland.
“Westminster must guard against all attempts by the tobacco industry and its allies to delay or weaken the legislation and consequent regulations. Elected representatives owe it to current and future generations to work at pace to ensure robust measures are rapidly implemented to eradicate the damage being inflicted on people’s lives by profit-centred multi-national corporations, especially in our poorest communities.”
Jenni Minto, Scotland’s public health minister, stated: “We welcome the re-introduction of the UK-wide Tobacco and Vapes Bill to UK Parliament which, once passed, will help us to achieve our ambitious target of a tobacco-free Scotland by 2034.”
“Smoking causes huge harms to individuals, their families and loved ones, and has wider impacts on the NHS and society. It is a major contributor to health inequalities – which is why our shared goal is to eradicate tobacco use.”
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