First Minister John Swinney has fired the opening shots of the Holyrood election campaign.
Scots are facing a challenging winter with rising energy costs and plummeting temperatures. But nearly 900,000 people north of the border, some of whom earn as little as £12,000, are about to lose their winter fuel payment thanks to Chancellor Rachel Reeves.
Swinney’s decision to replace the Labour cut with a universal system means heating payments will come back months before voters go to the polls in 2026.
The SNP leader will say Labour harmed Scotland’s older people while his Government saved them from freezing. It will be a crude dividing line, but the Labour Government has provided a gift to Swinney.
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar tried to neuter the SNP’s attack earlier this month by nipping in with his own plan to scrap his own UK Government’s harsh means test.
Getting in ahead of Swinney was cute politics, and forced the SNP Government into bringing forward their universal plan, but it has limitations. Sarwar will say a Government led by him will overhaul the winter fuel payment after 2026. Swinney will reply: “Done it.”
The next election will largely hinge on whether the UK Government is a help to Scottish Labour or a menace. Keir Starmer has been Prime Minister for five months and the current state of play is that the Labour Government is a danger to Sarwar.
Progressive policies are in train, such as boosting pay and workers’ rights, but it will take a while for Scots to feel the benefits.
Another pitfall for Labour is the record increases in funding for Holyrood will be used by Swinney to undermine Sarwar. An extra £3.4bn is being sent north and the SNP Government, as can be seen with the WFP row, will use the cash to undo unpopular Labour policies.
Scrapping Labour’s winter fuel cut is also a further sign Swinney has steadied the Government after a dismal couple of years.
Nicola Sturgeon’s last twelve months were dominated by Operation Branchform and fringe issues like gender recognition reform. Humza Yousaf grabbed the baton of chaos with vigour and drove his party’s poll rating downwards.
Swinney, an old hand who is adept at the basics of politics, has united his party and given the Government purpose. An SNP defeat in 2026 looked like a foregone conclusion earlier this year, but Swinney has made the election competitive again.
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