John Swinney’s first Budget as leader amounts to the SNP government’s most positive moment in years.
The Nationalists have been in freefall over failures in office, tawdry infighting and the nightmare of Operation Branchform. But the Budget is evidence that the Scottish Government has its mojo back. Swinney has ditched the niche concerns that dogged his predecessors and focused on bread and butter issues that matter to people.
Labour Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ awful means test of the Winter Fuel Payment? Gone. The two-child cap that has been inexplicably kept in place by the Labour Government? Gone in 2026, details to be confirmed.
Those two measures alone are progressive policies that no Labour MSP should be opposing. Swinney’s Budget is morally right and also politically clever by throwing down the gauntlet for Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar.
Reeves jacked up taxes by £40billion to protect spending on public services last month and the knock-on effect was £3.4billion extra for Scotland. Swinney is using the extra cash to scrap Westminster’s most unpopular policies and drawing a contrast with his own administration.
He is now daring Sarwar to vote down a Budget that will benefit low income pensioners and lead to more money for poorer kids. Extra cash for housing and the NHS has also allowed Swinney to portray himself as a Scottish Santa bearing gifts for hard-pressed Scots.
The tax and spending plan stands in contrast to the dismal fare offered by the SNP government in its last few budgets. Tight financial settlements from the previous Tory government led to SNP ministers raising income tax and cutting services.
The cry of “pay more to get less” cut through with voters at a time of rising dissatisfaction with the Scottish Government. Humza Yousaf’s one and only budget – where he shafted the poor and protected rich householders – was the low point of 17 years of SNP rule.
The dynamic of Swinney’s first Budget since succeeding Yousaf was more positive for the Nationalists. It roasted Labour in London for raising taxes while Swinney had the fun of spending the proceeds in a way designed to cause maximum embarrassment.
However, although Swinney delivered a decent Budget, it still amounts to him clearing up the mess left behind by his predecessors. Nicola Sturgeon liked to blame the pandemic for the sorry state of the NHS but the crisis facing the health service predated Covid.
The extra funding for housing was also to offset an appalling cut made by Yousaf 12 months earlier. And scrapping the council tax freeze cannot get SNP ministers off the hook for the damage done to local authorities since 2007.
Swinney’s Budget is two steps forward after his predecessors took three steps back. The wider issue for the First Minister is not how much extra money he is putting into public services but the difference it will make to people’s lives.
Voters have for years been bamboozled by a blizzard of statistics on so-called record increases in funding. Gordon Brown regularly pulled this trick in government and the baton was handed on to the Tories and SNP.
But it is irrelevant how many extra billions of pounds are raised if the money does not reach the people who rely on public services. Scotland’s public sector is big and its workforce is paid more than their equivalents south of the Border.
A large proportion of the £3.4billion will get gobbled up to pay the wages of staff on the public sector payroll. The SNP’s big mistake in the Sturgeon and Yousaf years was losing the trust of people to deliver on their priorities.
Sturgeon promised the educational attainment gap would be eradicated and she failed. NHS waiting time guarantees that she helped set in law were breached on countless occasions.
Voters used to believe the SNP government, particularly in Alex Salmond’s first term, was competent. No longer. Swinney’s challenge is ensuring the extra funding mainly benefits patients, pupils and passengers, not teachers, well-off council bosses or civil servants.
He has to demonstrate he has put more money in the pockets of struggling Scots and prove their public services are being repaired. Swinney has two budgets left before voters go to the polls in 2026 and every indication is the election will be tight.
The SNP has opened up a lead largely as a result of a voter backlash against daft decisions by Labour at Westminster. But SNP figures privately admit Keir Starmer will get better in government and Anas Sarwar remains the favourite to be the next first minister.
This Budget was a successful reset for the SNP after five years of drift, decay and scandal. It was also aimed at making Sarwar squirm by forcing him to vote for the Budget or side with the Tories.
Swinney is a canny politician who has tried to distance himself from the Greens and place the SNP in the mainstream centre-left again. Holyrood 2026 remains Labour’s to lose but Swinney holds the purse strings and he has delivered a Budget of substance.
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