John Swinney’s SNP is on course to comfortably remain as Holyrood’s largest party, according to a new opinion poll. Scottish Labour under Anas Sarwar would be a distant second after shedding support in the wake of Keir Starmer’s troubled start as Prime Minister.
Professor John Curtice said Sarwar’s prospects of becoming First Minister have “diminished” since July’s general election.
Labour’s historic election win last year installed Sarwar as the favourite to become FM after the 2026 Holyrood election. But Starmer’s difficulties in office have tanked Scottish Labour’s poll rating while Swinney is believed to have steadied the SNP.
A new Survation poll for Holyrood Sources/True North reveals the SNP are way out in front in Scottish Parliament voting intentions.
On the constituency vote, with undecided voters and people who refused to say removed, the SNP were on 35% with Labour trailing on 22%. The Tories were on 14%, Reform UK 13%, the Lib Dems 8%, the Greens 6% and Alba 1%.
On the regional List vote, the SNP polled 31%, Labour 21%, the Tories 14% and Reform 13%. The Lib Dems polled 10% and Greens 9%.
Although the SNP’s poll rating is way down on the 2021 Holyrood election result, the Nationalists would remain as the largest party by far if these numbers materialised next year. A seat breakdown estimates the SNP would return 53 MSPs while Labour would win 24 – two more than in the 2021 election, which was their worst ever Holyrood result.
The Conservatives and Reform would return 15 MSPs apiece – a major breakthrough for Farage’s right wing party – while the Lib Dems would win 12 MSPs and the Greens 10. If replicated on polling day, there would be a narrow pro-UK majority at Holyrood.
Curtice said: “Anas Sarwar‘s limited popularity as Labour’s Scottish leader is proving insufficient to counteract the adverse impact on his party’s standing of voters’ disappointment with the performance of the UK Labour government at Westminster. As a result, his once seemingly bright prospects of becoming Scotland’s next First Minister have diminished markedly since July. Nevertheless, the SNP are currently still heading for significant losses in next year’s Holyrood election, and could well find it difficult to form a stable administration.
“While voters, including many of those who voted SNP in 2021, have their doubts about the SNP‘s record in office, and especially so in the case of the health service, they are even more doubtful about Labour’s record at Westminster. Even many of those who voted Labour last year are critical of the UK government’s economic record.
“Meanwhile, nearly one in three of those who voted for the party in July disapprove of Sir Keir Starmer‘s record in office, making him less popular with his own party’s supporters than Kemi Badenoch, Sir Ed Davey or Nigel Farage are with theirs.
“Although Mr Sarwar is not as unpopular as his UK counterpart among Scots in general, still fewer than two in five of those who voted Labour in July say that they positively approve of his performance. In contrast two-thirds of those who voted SNP last year approve of John Swinney’s performance, a rating that seems to have helped him steady the SNP’s hitherto badly troubled ship. Nevertheless, the SNP is still well short of the level of popularity that the party enjoyed at the last Holyrood election in 2021.”
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