Which direction do we want Syria to go? Host to a 10-sided gunfight? A return to a repressive regime? Proxies and promoters of mischief making? Or, a peaceful, neutral hub that respects its people and neighbors?
In what is perhaps the most exciting and significant Middle East opening since Jimmy Carter’s Camp David Accords in 1978, Syrians face all these choices. The collapse of the 53-year Assad regime speaks to a national consensus for change. Can the United States be a constructive contributor to the peaceful, democratic transition of a long-suffering people?
Our experience says yes. Since the peaceful revolution against the Assad dictatorship in 2012, the United States found ways to advance change. Small amounts of direct assistance from the State Department and USAID began to: train officials; provide non-lethal assistance for governance, such as computers and funds for public works; establish independent radio and TV stations and provide survival alerts to the countryside; pay for cops in Aleppo; expand social media; provide seed funding and training for White Helmet rescuers and first responders; and engage women in critical decision-making.
Modest investments earned the support of allies, including Canada, the U.K., and Denmark.
These initiatives gained traction — until the Assad family’s brutal bombing campaign backed by Russia, Hezbollah and Iran.
The Syrians welcomed our assistance because we put them first. This was not a “big arms, small brain” U.S. approach. We believed that increasing the hope and reach of the Syrian opposition could deliver real promise. We thought that bottom up, popular change could anchor a tough neighborhood.
Now, after a dozen years of conflict and 500,000 deaths, Syrians have their opportunity. For the moment, the worst elements are gone. Benign neighbors are few, with U.S. allies Turkey and Israel, already active inside Syria. History shows that external actors make reversions to conflict much greater.
Given all the uncertainty, Syrians are on their streets, returning to homes (14 million fled), dealing with everything from garbage collection, public safety, providing space to celebrate holy days, and planning a critical national dialogue. Factions are discouraged. Interim leaders are behaving. Our American friends in Syria celebrate this “exhilarating” moment.
So far, U.S. diplomacy is enlightened and temperate. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s comments about an “inclusive and non-sectarian” government and a “unified approach” have led to direct contact with Syria’s emerging leaders. Characterizations are being avoided, and restraint is recommended to all.
With a new U.S. administration arriving, a clear direction is essential. This is no time for more “War on Terror” posturing or a placebo policy that lets nature take its course.
This is the moment when hope and trust must be reinforced. Syrian leadership is thin after the disappearance, murder and exile of many. Multiple factions make governance challenging, and resources are depleted. As in most post conflict settings, everything needs to be done. That is a recipe for disaster.
Focus and native resolve are the key building blocks, and tangible progress fuels them. The recent popular uprising confirms these principles.
Here are their next practical steps:
- Define Syria as a peaceful nation that respects all its people and neighbors.
- Emphasize public safety and daily life, with police protecting people and property, schools welcoming students, and small infrastructure improvements.
- Hold major perpetrators accountable under the law.
- Engage the public in an expansive daily dialogue and open communication.
Addressing immediate citizen needs is the first step to capturing the public’s imagination. Keeping it simple will attract internal followers and external help.
Ten years ago, the U.S. partnered with promising Syrians, offering catalytic aid and adapting to a fragile environment. Since then, we spent billions, supporting 900 U.S. soldiers in the north of Syria and keeping Syrians alive with $18 billion in humanitarian aid. Existing funding streams must be redirected to meet this promising moment. Accepting risk and relying on Syrians must replace delay and deliberation. We need an interagency and multilateral team with a full-time leader to adopt a unified strategy.
Historic openings are few — and America can make a difference. Thanks to the Syrians’ grit, we are not called to fight, but to build peace.
Barton, a Princeton University lecturer and author of “Peace Works – America’s Unifying Role in a Turbulent World,” was assistant secretary of state for conflict and stabilization operations from 2011-2014 and a leader of U.S. government efforts to support the peaceful Syrian opposition. Hoffman is a conflict and stabilization professional who worked on Syria.