WASHINGTON — Punxsutawney Phil will soon predict either six more weeks of winter or an early spring for 2025, but just how accurate are his yearly forecasts?
The annual ceremony in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, dates back to 1887, according to the Library of Congress. But even with more than 100 years of “forecasting experience,” Punxsutawney Phil certainly isn’t perfect.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration compared Punxsutawney Phil’s forecast to the national weather the last 10 years and found “on average, Phil has gotten it right 30% of the time.” Over the last 20 years, NOAA found Phil was 35% correct – but still a lot less accurate than some of his groundhog competitors.
Going back all the way to his first prediction in 1887, he’s been right only a slightly better (but still worse than a coin flip) 39% of the time, according to an analysis from Stormfax Weather Almanac.
When is Groundhog Day 2025?
During the annual celebration, people gather at Gobbler’s Knob as members of Phil’s “inner circle” summon the groundhog from his tree stump at dawn to learn if he has seen his shadow.
Groundhog Day always falls on Feb. 2. This year, Groundhog Day falls on a Sunday.
According to folklore, if he sees his shadow there will be six more weeks of winter. If he doesn’t, spring comes early.
How many times has Punxsutawney Phil seen his shadow?
Since 1887, Punxsutawney Phil’s track record has leaned heavily toward six more weeks of winter.
In fact, arguably the world’s most famous groundhog has predicted an early spring (by not seeing his shadow) just 21 times, including last year, according to the numbers announced by the Groundhog Day “Inner Circle.”
Meanwhile, he’s seen his shadow 109 times (including 2023), though there are 10 years where there’s no record of what happened.
Prior to 2024, the last time Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow was in 2020, and before that in 2019, offering a back-to-back dose of his rare early spring prediction.
Will we get another back-to-back early spring prediction this year? Tune in on Sunday to find out.
The Associated Press and WKYC’s Ryan Haidet contributed to this report.