TEMPLE, Texas — Scientists have upgraded the threat level of an asteroid that has a small chance of hitting Earth in 2032, but that doesn’t mean we need to start panicking just yet.
According to NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA), asteroid 2024 YR4 has been upgraded to level three on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which measures the potential for objects to impact the Earth.
The scale ranges from 0-10, with 1 being “normal” and 8-10 being a “certain collision”. Asteroid 2024 YR4 is a three on the scale, with threes being described as “A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers”.
The Center for Near Earth Object Studies says level three risk means the current calculations give a greater than 1% chance of a collision. According to NASA’s Jet Propulsion Lab’s Sentry System, asteroid 2024 YR4 currently has an impact probability of around 2.2%.
Despite the heightened threat level, NASA says it is still too far out to predict if 2024 YR4 will be a genuine concern. The agency says the impact probability will be better known as more studies of the asteroid’s orbit are taken. This could mean the impact probability will rise, or it could be completely ruled out as an impact risk, as the agency says has happened with many other objects on its asteroid risk list.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is estimated to be around 130-300 feet wide, according to NASA, and would strike on Dec. 22, 2032 on the slim chances that it does impact Earth.
NASA said U.S. government agencies involved in planetary defense have been notified of the asteroid due to the increased risk, as well as the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group and the United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs.
The latest information on asteroid 2024 YR4 will be available on NASA’s automated Sentry page and its planetary defense blog, the administration said.