Celtic fans are dreaming of a monumental Champions League upset against Bayern Munich – and now the Supercomputer has spoken.
The Hoops must make history to book their place into the last 16, having never beaten the German heavyweights in four previous encounters. Brendan Rodgers was in the dugout the last time both teams met, losing 2-1 at Parkhead before going down 3-0 at the Allianz Arena in 2017. 14 years earlier, a double blunder from Magnus Hedman saw Munich stage a late fightback to win 2-1 in Germany, and Martin O’Neill’s men were frustrated months later in a goalless return leg.
Now, Celts will need to deliver a performance and result for the ages if they are to send shockwaves across Europe on Wednesday night. The Scottish champions have been boosted by the news that top scorer Daizen Maeda has been cleared to play after his two-match ban was reduced on appeal. And that could prove a major game-changer, with the Japanese Duracell Bunny in the form of his life.
However, Celtic are still long odds to put Harry Kane and co. to the sword. Opta’s supercomputer ran 10,000 data-led pre-match simulations and the Bundesliga leaders came out on top in 48.2 per cent of those. The Hoops have been handed a win probability of 27.7 per cent, while the chances of a draw are 24.1 per cent.
Maeda’s lightning-quick pace and red-hot goalscoring form could wreak havoc in the Bayern backline, but analytical boffins have identified Nicolas Kuhn as the Parkhead side’s biggest threat. The German winger has created 10 chances travelling 5+ metres with the ball – the most of any player during the league phase. And having spent two years at the six-time European winners as a youngster, Kuhn will be determined to run the show – just like he did in the 3-1 win over RB Leipzig.
Yet while Opta gives Celtic an outside chance of taking command in the first leg, German legend Lothar Matthaus reckons it’ll be a breeze for the Bavarians. Matthaus – who won a record 150 caps, won the Euros in 1980 and the World Cup ten years later – boldly declared: “I don’t see any danger for Bayern at all in the games with Celtic.
“Their chances of reaching the Round of 16 are very good. Celtic have a home and an away face. The Scots won 3-1 at home against RB Leipzig, but remember, they lost 7-1 at Borussia Dortmund. I know Bayern may have conceded three goals in Rotterdam against Feyenoord and also against Holstein Kiel in the Bundesliga. But they kept a clean sheet in their last game against Werder Bremen and looked better. Everything is going well for them at the moment. They are showing the quality they have… in contrast to Dortmund.”
Fellow loudmouth Markus Babbel also dismissed Celtic’s chances of ending Vincent Kompany’s pursuit of Champions League glory. “Bayern Munich are still one of the favourites for the Champions League this season in my eyes, because they have a really strong squad,” he told Wette.de. “They’re back to believing they can win something – last year they were struggling, but this year under Vincent Kompany they look strong and look like a team that can win silverware.
“Yes, they did have massive problems with this new Champions League format this season – some fantastic games, but then the next game you’d think ‘mamma mia, why are they playing so badly?!’ But now we’re back to the old knockout format of the Champions League where you play away, and you play home over two legs – and in this format Bayern Munich will be too strong for Celtic.
“Of course, it’ll be a tough game for Bayern at Celtic Park on Wednesday night – it’s not easy there, it’ll be loud, so it’ll be hard for Bayern. But at home next week, they will be too strong for Celtic. They have too much quality. I can’t believe that Celtic will qualify for the next round.
“It won’t be a result like Borussia Dortmund’s 7-1 win against Celtic earlier this season, but across two games Bayern will win comfortably. And for me, as I said, they are one of the top favourites that can win the Champions League this season – now that they’ve reached the knockout stages, they can go all the way and win the competition under Vincent Kompany.”
At least Celtic have someone in their corner, though, as Manchester United idol Paul Scholes aired his respect for the Glasgow giants.