The Nets were expected to win 18.5 games this season. That’s it. And after trading away Dennis Schröder and Dorian Finney-Smith in December, they appeared to be well on their way to utter futility.
While Brooklyn remains one of the worst teams in the NBA record wise, it still exceeded expectations under first-year head coach Jordi Fernandez. Monday’s 97-89 defeat of the Charlotte Hornets at Barclays Center marked the franchise’s 19th win this season.
That number matters in the Nets’ locker room.
“We remember when that list came out,” Trendon Watford said. “We definitely kept that in the back of our heads. How they doubted us… Shoutout to the experts.”
The Nets somehow eclipsed their projected win total, before hitting the All-Star break, despite trading key players and a plethora of injuries and extended absences up and down the roster. And after losing seven straight games from Jan. 15 to Jan. 27, they enter Wednesday’s home matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers with five wins in their last six tries.
Brooklyn’s only loss during that stretch was against the Washington Wizards last Wednesday. For keeping players motivated in what many expected to be a lost season, Fernandez and his staff deserve tons of credit.
Cam Thomas has been out for over a month. Cam Johnson recently missed weeks worth of games.
“I told them [we were projected to win] 19, so don’t tell them that I lied to them,” Fernandez said. “I don’t do 18.5, I rounded up to 19. It’s what the odds is. You have to find ways to be competitive. We’re at 19 right now, but the point is to keep going and play the right way. When the odds are against you, you try to be a competitor and respond. I think the guys have done a great job. We have 29 games left, so we have to keep trying to get better, keep building what we want to build here.”
There’s a flip side to this surge of success. The Nets’ chances of landing a Top 4 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft continue to dwindle with each win. Brooklyn has the sixth-best lottery odds entering Tuesday’s games, with a 37.2% chance at a Top 4 pick and a 9% chance at landing the No. 1 overall pick. Three games behind the Toronto Raptors for fifth.
The crazy part is, the Nets (19-34) are just three games back of moving into the final Play-In Tournament slot in the Eastern Conference. Also important to keep in mind: the Atlanta Hawks had 3% odds at landing the No. 1 pick after finishing 10th in the Eastern Conference at 36-46 last season — and still hit the jackpot.
The Nets won’t be able to control the aerodynamics of ping pong balls at the Draft Lottery in Chicago on May 12, but they can control their effort down the stretch of the regular season. Instead of finishing the tank strong, they could fight their way into the Play-In Tournament, end their 2024-25 season with purpose, and maybe still get lucky in terms of draft position when it’s all said and done.
This suddenly surging team now has a choice to make: Bet on the lottery odds or bet on themselves.
“With all the trades and everything that’s happening, we still found a way to come together,” Day’Ron Sharpe said. “I feel like we have a bunch of guys who know how to get along with people and that’s why it’s helping us.”